Cal Facts 2018

1 2 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS State and Local Finance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Health and Human Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 1 2 LEGISLATIVE ANALYST’S OFFICE www.lao.ca.gov | (916) 445-4656 Legislative Analyst Mac Taylor State and Local Finance Health and Human Services Carolyn Chu Mark C. Newton Ginni Bella Navarre Justin Garosi Ann Hollingshead Chas Alamo Seth Kerstein Jackie Barocio Ryan Miller Ben Johnson Lourdes Morales Brian Metzker Nick Schroeder Ryan Millendez Brian Uhler Sonja Petek Brian Weatherford Ryan Woolsey Education Corrections, Transportation, Jennifer Kuhn and Environment Ryan Anderson Anthony Simbol Edgar Cabral Brian Brown Jason Constantouros Drew Soderborg Sara Cortez Ross Brown Kenneth Kapphahn Rachel Ehlers Amy Li Paul Golaszewski Lisa Qing Helen Kerstein Paul Steenhausen Luke Koushmaro Anita Lee Shawn Martin Caitlin O’Neil Administration, Information Services, and Support Sarah Kleinberg Tina McGee Sarah Barkman Izet Arriaga Patt Kregelo Sarah Scanlon Michael Greer Jim Stahley Vu Chu Anthony Lucero Mohammed Mohammed Saeed Rima Seiilova-Olson State and Local Finance 33 S TAT E A N D LO CA L F I N A N C E State and Local Finance 33 44 State and Local Finance 55 & eraC htlaeH ecnatsissA laicoS & erusieL ytilatipsoH lacoL tnemnrevoG edarT liateR gnirutcafunaM lacinhceT & lanoisseforP troppuS & evitartsinimdA ecnaniF noitcurtsnoC edarT elaselohW rehtO California's 17 Million Jobs Spread Across Many Sectors 2018 20% 10 High Concentration of Motion Picture, Farm, and Web Search Jobs Share of All U.S. Jobs by Sector California Rest of U.S. 52% Motion Pictures 47% Farming 38% Web Search & Internet Publishing 27% Computer & Electronics Manufacturing 21% Social Assistance 11% All Jobs Key Sectors Vary Across Regions of California Regional Share of Statewide Jobs in All Sectors 23% 46% 6% 6% Bay Area Greater Greater San Joaquin Los Angeles Sacramento Valley Regional Share of Statewide Jobs in Key Sectors Professional & Technical Transportation & Warehousing Information State Farming Government 36% 37% 55% 22% 50% California Incomes Higher Than U.S. Household Income, 2016 Median $64,000 California $55,000 U.S. Top 10 Percent $314,000 $265,000 Incomes Vary Across Regions of the State Bottom 10%, Median, and Top 10% Household Incomes $404,000 $86,000 Bay Area $313,000 $65,000 Central Coast $298,000 $61,000 Greater Los Angeles $296,000 $66,000 San Diego $267,000 $61,000 Greater Sacramento $216,000 $48,000 San Joaquin Valley Incomes Also Vary Across Occupations Hourly Wages in Common Occupations 100,000 workers Food Prep Nurses Lawyers Doctors Secretaries Accountants Cashiers 10 30 50 70 90 $110 State and Local Finance 55 66 Housing Is Very Expensive in California Median Housing Costs in 50 Largest U.S. Cities, 2018 Rent (2 Bedroom) Home Price $3,000 1,500 500 200,000 600,000 $1,200,000 San Francisco San Francisco San Jose San Jose Oakland Oakland Los Angeles San Diego California $1,850 San Diego Long Beach Los Angeles Long Beach California $542,000 Sacramento Sacramento Since 1990, Fresno and Sacramento have added housing at twice the annual rate of California Fresno coastal cities Fresno Sacramento CA Coast 0.5 1.5% Fresno 8 Rest U .S . 4 CA Coast 1990 2017 Decades of limited home building in California's coastal cities, as shown by the comparison of building permits (per 1,000 residents) above, has led to a housing shortage. State and Local Finance 77 California's Population Has Gotten Older Since 1990 Share of Population in Each Age Range Age 1990 100 Retirees 65+ In 1990, young adults were a large share of the population. This meant the labor force was large relative to the overall 50 population. Prime Working Age 25 to 64 Kids and Young Adults 0 to 24 5 10% 2017 100 This large cohort now is at or nearing retirment age. As a result, the labor force is Kids now are a smaller becoming relatively smaller. share in large part because women are having fewer children. 2.5 50 1.8 1990 2017 5 10% State and Local Finance 77 88 Overview of California's Tax System The state government raises about two-thirds of tax revenue in California. In 2016-17, taxes in California raised a total of about $210 billion—equal to nearly 10% of the economy. State government collected almost two-thirds of these taxes. The chart breaks Personal Income Tax Sales Tax Property Tax out each tax by source. For example, the biggest source of personal income tax revenue is wage and salary income. State Government Taxes Local Government Taxes $100 Million Personal Income Tax Property Tax Residential Housing (Owner-Occupied) Wages and Salaries Residential Housing (Not Owner-Occupied) Business Income Commercial/Industrial Capital Gains Other Dividends, Interest, and Rent Sales and Use Tax Retirement Income Other Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers and Gas Stations Corporation Tax Corporations Other Other Entities Bars/Restaurants and Food/Beverage Stores Fuel Taxes Gasoline Diesel Home Goods Stores, Construction, and Real Estate Other State Taxes Wholesalers Insurance Tobacco General Merchandise Stores Alcohol Manufacturing Other Local Taxes Clothing Stores Vehicle License Fee Hotels Business Taxes Property Transfer State and Local Finance 99 Overview of California's Tax System The state government raises about two-thirds of tax revenue in California. In 2016-17, taxes in California raised a total of about $210 billion—equal to nearly 10% of the economy. State government collected almost two-thirds of these taxes. The chart breaks Personal Income Tax Sales Tax Property Tax out each tax by source. For example, the biggest source of personal income tax revenue is wage and salary income. State Government Taxes Local Government Taxes $100 Million Personal Income Tax Property Tax Residential Housing (Owner-Occupied) Wages and Salaries Residential Housing (Not Owner-Occupied) Business Income Commercial/Industrial Capital Gains Other Dividends, Interest, and Rent Sales and Use Tax Retirement Income Other Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers and Gas Stations Corporation Tax Corporations Other Other Entities Bars/Restaurants and Food/Beverage Stores Fuel Taxes Gasoline Diesel Home Goods Stores, Construction, and Real Estate Other State Taxes Wholesalers Insurance Tobacco General Merchandise Stores Alcohol Manufacturing Other Local Taxes Clothing Stores Vehicle License Fee Hotels Business Taxes Property Transfer State and Local Finance 99 1100 Overview of California's Major Tax Rates Sales Tax The sales tax rate varies significantly throughout the state because California local governments Personal Income Tax can levy additional sales tax rates. Effective Rates for 2017 Percent of Population as of January 1, 2018 Rate 12% 7.25% In at least part of 26 counties, the rate is 7.25% 10 7.26-7.749 Single Filers 7.75 8 Joint Filers 7.76-8.25 6 8.26-9.24 Over half of Californians live where the rate is either 7.75% or 9.5%. 9.25 4 9.5 2 9.51-10.25 Rate exceeds 9.5% in parts of Contra Costa, Alameda, and Los Angeles Counties. Eight cities in Los Angeles County have the highest rate in the state (10.25%). 200,000 400,000 600,000 $800,000 5 10 15 20 25 30% Property Tax Average Effective Tax Rate by Purchase Year Other Tax Rates The State Constitution sets the tax rate on real property at 1%. That rate, however, is applied to the assessed value of the house, which equals the initial purchase price grown by a maximum Corporations Insurance of 2% per year. Because housing prices have historically grown faster than 2%, homeowners 8.84% of corporate income 2.35% on insurance premiums who have been in their homes longer tend to pay lower effective tax rates (tax rate as a share of the home's market value). Gasoline 1975 $0.46/gallon Distilled Spirits Diesel $0.039 per 1.5 oz drink 1980 $0.36/gallon plus 5.75% sales tax 1985 Cigaretttes Beer 1990 $2.87/pack $0.019 per 12 oz drink 1995 2000 Other Tobacco Products Wine 2005 $3.37/pack equivalent $0.008 per 5 oz drink ($0.012 for sparkling) 2010 2015 2018 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00% State and Local Finance 1111 Overview of California's Major Tax Rates Sales Tax The sales tax rate varies significantly throughout the state because California local governments Personal Income Tax can levy additional sales tax rates. Effective Rates for 2017 Percent of Population as of January 1, 2018 Rate 12% 7.25% In at least part of 26 counties, the rate is 7.25% 10 7.26-7.749 Single Filers 7.75 8 Joint Filers 7.76-8.25 6 8.26-9.24 Over half of Californians live where the rate is either 7.75% or 9.5%. 9.25 4 9.5 2 9.51-10.25 Rate exceeds 9.5% in parts of Contra Costa, Alameda, and Los Angeles Counties. Eight cities in Los Angeles County have the highest rate in the state (10.25%). 200,000 400,000 600,000 $800,000 5 10 15 20 25 30% Property Tax Average Effective Tax Rate by Purchase Year Other Tax Rates The State Constitution sets the tax rate on real property at 1%. That rate, however, is applied to the assessed value of the house, which equals the initial purchase price grown by a maximum Corporations Insurance of 2% per year. Because housing prices have historically grown faster than 2%, homeowners 8.84% of corporate income 2.35% on insurance premiums who have been in their homes longer tend to pay lower effective tax rates (tax rate as a share of the home's market value). Gasoline 1975 $0.46/gallon Distilled Spirits Diesel $0.039 per 1.5 oz drink 1980 $0.36/gallon plus 5.75% sales tax 1985 Cigarettes Beer 1990 $2.87/pack $0.019 per 12 oz drink 1995 2000 Other Tobacco Products Wine 2005 $3.37/pack equivalent $0.008 per 5 oz drink ($0.012 for sparkling) 2010 2015 2018 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00% State and Local Finance 1111 1122 Revenue Volatility Budget Reserves The personal income tax (PIT) is the state's largest single revenue source, supporting over In order to address revenue volatility, the voters passed Proposition 2 in 2014. Proposition 2 two-thirds of the General Fund (the state's main operating account). As shown below, the PIT takes volatile revenues off the table in good economic years so that they can be used to reduce has grown substantially since the most recent recession. the need for cuts in bad economic years. Billions of 2018-19 Dollars Hypothetical Spending Hypothetical Spending $100 Without Budget Reserves With Budget Reserves PIT 80 ...which can be used to reduce the need Historically, the state Under Proposition 2, for budget cuts in the 60 spent nearly all its revenue the state is saving next recession. in expansion years... some of its revenue ...which led to large during the expansion... budget cuts when 40 Sales and Use Tax revenues dropped off in a recession. 20 Corporation Tax Revenue raised from 2008-09 through 2018-19 (estimated). +28% year-over-year PIT growth in 1999-00 The PIT is highly volatile, which has in the past led to large increases in spending in good economic times and the need to 1996-97 2018-19 make large cuts in bad economic times. -26% year-over-year decline in 2001-02 The PIT is about five times more volatile than personal income. About 40% of the volatility comes As a percent of General Fund from choices about which types of income to include in the tax base. Another 40% comes revenues, budget reserves have from the state's progressive rate structure. And the remaining volatility comes from tax credits grown substantially since the and deductions. 16.8% voters passed Proposition 2. 15.2% 20% Credits and 40% Deductions 9.4% Graduated Rate 6.2% 40% Structure 3.7% Definition of PIT Base Volatility of Volatility of PIT 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 Personal Income State and Local Finance 1133 Revenue Volatility Budget Reserves The personal income tax (PIT) is the state's largest single revenue source, supporting over In order to address revenue volatility, the voters passed Proposition 2 in 2014. Proposition 2 two-thirds of the General Fund (the state's main operating account). As shown below, the PIT takes volatile revenues off the table in good economic years so that they can be used to reduce has grown substantially since the most recent recession. the need for cuts in bad economic years. Billions of 2018-19 Dollars Hypothetical Spending Hypothetical Spending $100 Without Budget Reserves With Budget Reserves PIT 80 ...which can be used to reduce the need Historically, the state Under Proposition 2, for budget cuts in the 60 spent nearly all its revenue the state is saving next recession. in expansion years... some of its revenue ...which led to large during the expansion... budget cuts when 40 Sales and Use Tax revenues dropped off in a recession. 20 Corporation Tax Revenue raised from 2008-09 through 2018-19 (estimated). +28% year-over-year PIT growth in 1999-00 The PIT is highly volatile, which has in the past led to large increases in spending in good economic times and the need to 1996-97 2018-19 make large cuts in bad economic times. -26% year-over-year decline in 2001-02 The PIT is about five times more volatile than personal income. About 40% of the volatility comes As a percent of General Fund from choices about which types of income to include in the tax base. Another 40% comes revenues, budget reserves have from the state's progressive rate structure. And the remaining volatility comes from tax credits grown substantially since the and deductions. 16.8% voters passed Proposition 2. 15.2% 20% Credits and 40% Deductions 9.4% Graduated Rate 6.2% 40% Structure 3.7% Definition of PIT Base Volatility of Volatility of PIT 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 Personal Income State and Local Finance 1133 1144 State Budget Is Focused on Education... ...and Health and Human Services Programs Total General Fund and Special Fund Spending in 2018-19—$197 Billion Education Health and Human Services Medi-Cal K-12 Education CalWORKs In-Home Supportive Services OtherHealthand Human Services SSI/SSP Developmental Child Care and Services California Preschool California Community University StateHospitals State Colleges of California University Courts and Criminal Justice Other Financial Aid Other Financial Transportation Natural Resources Students Includes: Forestry StateandLocalCorrections Other and Fire • Retiree Health and California Dental Benefits Highway Patrol • Tax Administration Roads, Highways, and Mass Transit Air Quality Water, Fish, and • Homeowner’s and Toxics Tax Exemption Wildlife Other DMV Recycing Parks and Courts Criminal and Recovery C F o i n s s h e , rv a a n tio d n Justice State and Local Finance 1155 State Budget Is Focused on Education... ...and Health and Human Services Programs Total General Fund and Special Fund Spending in 2018-19—$197 Billion Education Health and Human Services Medi-Cal K-12 Education CalWORKs In-Home Supportive Services Other Health and Human Services SSI/SSP Developmental Child Care and Services California Preschool California Community University State Hospitals State Colleges of California University Courts and Criminal Justice Other Financial Aid Other Financial Transportation Natural Resources Students Includes: Forestry State and Local Corrections Other and Fire • Retiree Health and California Dental Benefits Highway Patrol • Tax Administration Roads, Highways, and Mass Transit Air Quality Water, Fish, and • Homeowner’s and Toxics Tax Exemption Wildlife Other DMV Recycing Parks and Courts Criminal and Recovery C F o i n s s h e , r v a a n tio d n Justice State and Local Finance 1155 1166 Highlights of the State-Local Fiscal Relationship The past 40 years in California have seen significant changes in the fiscal relationship between the state and local government. Below we highlight the major events that have altered the state-local fiscal relationship since 1978. We organize the major events around key themes that have emerged over the past four decades. Major Milestones in the State-Local Fiscal Relationship Affects Property Taxes Changes Vote Requirements Provides State Funding Redevelopment for Services and Mandates Proposition 13 (1978) Limits property tax rates to 1%, cutting local government property tax Redevelopment Dissolution (2011) revenue by over half. Establishes vote Legislation between 2011 and 2015 requirement for certain taxes. unwound redevelopment. 2011 Realignment Proposition 4 (1979) Major shift in authority from Sets annual state and local state to counties for criminal spending caps. Requires justice programs and funding state to reimburse local responsibility for other programs. governments for some state mandates. 1991 Realignment Major shift in authority from Proposition 26 (2010) state to counties for some Broadens definition of health and human services taxes to include some programs. additional fees and charges. Proposition 22 (2010) Proposition 172 (1993) Reduces state’s authority Imposes half-cent sales tax to use or redirect state fuel for local public safety programs. and local property taxes. Proposition 218 (1996) Limits local government authority to impose certain Proposition 1A (2004) taxes, fees, and assessments. Restricts state from reducing local property tax, sales tax, and vehicle license fee revenues. State and Local Finance 1177 Revenue Sources for Local Government Counties, cities, and special districts rely on four main revenue sources: federal and state grants, property taxes, user charges and fees, and other taxes and revenues. 2016-17 Federal and State Grants Other Taxes and Revenues Property Taxes User Charges Other Taxes and Fees and Revenues Special Districts $52.5 Billion Property Taxes Cities $78 Billion UUsseerr CChhaarrggeess aanndd FFeeeess Counties $69.2 Billion Federal and State Grants Property User Charges Taxes and Fees Federal and State Grants Other Taxes and Revenues • Cities and special districts receive a significant share of their funding from various user charges and fees. They use these funds to pay for electricity, water, and other municipal services. • Counties receive nearly half of their revenue from the state and federal government and must spend these funds for specific purposes, primarily health and human services. State and Local Finance 1177 1188 Services Delivered by Local Government Counties, cities, and special districts use their revenues to deliver services State Population Living in Cities to the residents living in their jurisdiction. and Unincorporated Areas of State • Countywide Services. California’s 58 counties provide state-specified health and human services programs for all individuals in a county. They also provide countywide services, such as jail, district attorney, assessor, and elections. Unincorporated Areas of Counties • Municipal Services. Local governments provide a variety of municipal services—primarily police and fire, but also public works, parks, and others. Cities, counties, and special districts can provide these services depending on where someone lives. Most people live in cities and receive most services from their city. Cities • Special District Services. Residents typically receive services from a combination of their city and special districts or their county and special districts. Typically, special districts provide a certain type of municipal service. Number of Special Districts by Type Water 361 Fire Protection 346 Community Services 324 Cemetery 248 Reclamation and Levee 163 Sanitation 103 Resources Conservation 100 Recreation and Park 95 Irrigation 92 Healthcare 59 Utility 27 Mosquito and Pest Abatement 17 Veterans Memorial 13 Transit 13 Library 12 Harbor and Port 10 State and Local Finance 1199 Services Delivered by Local Government Two Factors Drive Funding for Municipal Services Per Capita Assessed Value, 2016-17a Imperial Del Norte Kings Per Capita Assessed Value Tulare Municipal Services Schools Yuba Lassen Fresno Merced • Municipal services—such as police, fire, and Tehama Stanislaus parks—are primarily funded by property tax Madera revenue. Property tax funding for municipal Kern services generally is higher in counties with San Joaquin higher assessed values. Butte Humboldt San Bernardino • Municipal services funding also depends on Sacramento the share of property tax revenue allocated to Sutter Shasta municipal services relative to schools. While Modoc schools’ shares vary across counties, the state Lake allocates funding to schools to equalize these Siskiyou differences. Glenn Riverside Trinity Solano Yolo Mariposa Tuolumne Mendocino Amador San Benito Los Angeles Monterey San Diego Calaveras Ventura Santa Cruz Alameda El Dorado Contra Costa Sonoma Orange Santa Barbara Sierra Colusa Placer Nevada San Luis Obispo Plumas Santa Clara Inyo San Francisco Napa San Mateo Marin 100,000 200,000 $300,000 a Mono and Alpine Counties are excluded from this list because large per capita assessed values skew scale. State and Local Finance 1199 2200 Education 2211 E D U CAT I O N Education 2211 2222 California’s K-12 Student Population Differs From Nation Fall 2015 Data, Unless Otherwise Noted U.S. CA Race/Ethnicity Hispanic/Latino 22% 54% White 24% 52% Asian 4% 11% Black 6% 17% Income 18% Below Federal Poverty Line 2017 18% All Low Income 51% 59% Language Non-English Speaking Households 18% 45% 2017 English Learners 8% 21% Disability All Disabilities 12% 13% Autism 1% 2% Parental Education (2017) Less Than High School 12% 17% High School Only 21% 28% College Graduate 32% 34% Education 2233 Although Many Districts Are Small, Most K-12 Students Attend Large Districts Number of Districts by Size Student Attendance by District Size 2017-18 2017-18 350 3,000,000 300 2,500,000 250 2,000,000 200 1,500,000 150 1,000,000 100 50 500,000 3- 101- 1,001- 5,001- 10,001- 40,001+ 3- 101- 1,001- 5,001- 10,001- 40,001+ 100 1,000 5,000 10,000 40,000 100 1,000 5,000 10,000 40,000 District Attendance District Attendance California has 944 school districts, averaging 5,600 students each. The largest district is Los Angeles Unified with more than 400,000 students. K-12 Enrollment Trends Vary Greatly Across State Enrollment Change, 2008-09 to 2017-18 Statewide Student Enrollment 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 Statewide enrollment is projected to decline by 2,000,000 3% over the next ten years. 1,000,000 1977-78 1987-88 1997-98 2007-08 2017-18 2027-28 10,000 to 20,000 0 to 10,000 -10,000 to 0 -20,000 to -10,000 Los Angeles County had the largest decline . 137,000 students, 8 percent Education 2233 2244 California K-12 Schools Rely Heavily on State Funding Total Operational and Capital Funding by Source, 2015-16 California U.S. Average State Local Property Tax Other Local Federal Unlike most other states, the California Constitution limits local property tax rates. School Funding Is at an All-Time High State and Local Operational Funding Per K-12 Student, 2017-18 Dollars $12,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 1988-89 1992-93 1996-97 2000-01 2004-05 2008-09 2012-13 2017-18 California School Spending Ranks in the Middle of States Rank Among the 50 States and Washington D.C. 15 20 25 30 35 40 1988-89 1992-93 1996-97 2000-01 2004-05 2008-09 2012-13 2015-16 School spending in California is more sensitive to recessions and recoveries than other states. Education 2255 State Provides Schools Equal Base Funding Per Student Base Funding Rates by Grade Span, 2018-19 Kindergarten - 3rd Grade $8,235 Some school districts with especially high property tax 4th - 6th Grade $7,571 revenue have more funding per student than the rates shown. 7th - 8th Grade $7,796 9th -12th Grade $9,270 State Provides Additional Funding for English Learners and Low-Income (EL/LI) Students Funding Rates Per Student for Grades K-3 Based on District EL/LI Share, 2018-19 $8,235 Total Funding 0% EL/LI Share $0 Additional Funding $8,647 25% EL/LI Share $412 $9,059 50% EL/LI Share $824 75% EL/LI Share $10,294 $2,059 100% EL/LI Share $11,735 $3,500 Base Funding Additional Funding Education 2255 2266 Fewer Than Half of K-12 Students Meet State Standards Percentage Meeting Standards, Spring 2018 75% Reading Math 50 25 4th Grade 6th Grade 8th Grade 11th Grade California Students Score Below National Average Average Score on National Assessment of 4th Grade Reading 230 225 Nation 215 205 California 195 1992 1998 2005 2011 2017 In 2017, states’ average 4th grade reading score ranged from a high of 236 to a low of 207. Scores follow a similar pattern for other grade levels and subjects. Achievement Gaps Exist Low Group Non-Low Income Average Income Average Percentile Rank on State Tests, Spring 2017 Hispanic/Latino 36th 39th 54th White 45th 60th 70th Black 27th 32nd 46th Asian 62nd 77th 84th Education 2277 California Has an Extensive Higher Education System 3.7 Million Students, 2016-17 8% Enrollment University of California (UC) 10 Campuses 9% Enrollment Private For-Profit Approximately 700 Campuses Private Nonprofit 10% Enrollment Approximately 180 Campuses California State University (CSU) 23 Campuses 14% Enrollment California Community Colleges (CCC) 114 Campuses 59% Enrollment Segments Vary in Degree Production Degrees by Segment, 2016-17 Doctoral Master’s Bachelor’s Associate’s Certificate Degrees Degrees Degrees Degrees 6,257 12,003 53,717 0 345 UC Private 2,459 9,594 18,849 10,850 47,495 For-Profit Private 9,911 38,000 40,621 2,079 5,913 Nonprofit CSU 540 20,201 98,771 0 359 CCC 0 0 0 138,904 84,619 Totals 19,167 79,798 211,958 151,833 139,181 Education 2277 2288 Almost One-Third of Undergraduates Are Age 25 and Older Headcount, Fall 2015 Under 25 25 and Over UC 95% 5% CSU 81% 19% Private Nonprofit 79% 21% Total 68% 32% CCC 63% 37% Private For-Profit 39% 61% The Racial/Ethnic Composition of the Undergraduate Student Body Varies by Segment Headcount, Four Largest Groups, 2016-17 Hispanic White Asian Black UC 30% 29% 38% 3% Private 31% 46% 16% 7% Nonprofit Private 36% 33% 9% 21% For-Profit CSU 47% 28% 20% 5% CCC 49% 30% 14% 7% Total 45% 31% 16% 8% California 40% 40% 14% 6% Population Education 2299 Amount of Core Funding Varies Notably by Segment Per Full-Time Equivalent (FTE) Student, 2018-19 Dollars $40,000 35,000 UC 30,000 25,000 20,000 CSU 15,000 10,000 CCC 5,000 2000-01 2003-04 2006-07 2009-10 2012-13 2015-16 2018-19 At UC and CSU, core funds consist primarily of state General Fund and student tuition and fees. At CCC, core funds also include local property tax revenue. State Is Largest Source of Higher Education Funding Breakdown of Core Funding Per FTE Student, 2018-19 Dollars Nonresident Student Tuition/Other $30,000 Resident Student Tuition State and Local Property Tax 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 2008 2018 2008 2018 2008 2018 UC CSU CCC At UC, “other” includes a portion of overhead on federal research grants and patent royalty income. Education 2299 3300 Tuition Is Notably Higher Today Than 20 Years Ago Tuition and Systemwide Fees, 2018-19 Dollars $16,000 $12,570 12,000 8,000 UC $5,742 4,000 CSU $1,380 CCC 2000-01 2003-04 2006-07 2009-10 2012-13 2015-16 2018-19 Students without financial need pay the rates shown. At the three segments, more than half of undergraduates receive gift aid that covers the full tuition charge. Tuition Still Is Relatively Low at CCC and CSU, Higher at UC 2017-18 $16,000 California National Average 12,000 8,000 4,000 CCC CSU UC Education 3311 California Students Receive Over $8 Billion in Aid Annually Need-Based Gift Aid For Undergraduates, 2016-17 Cal Grant: Provides gift aid for $1.9 Billion students enrolled at public and private schools. State and Federal Aid Institutional $4.1 Billion Aid California College Promise $4.2 Billion $770 Million Grant: Covers tuition for CCC students. UC Grant: Covers tuition and some $746 Million living costs for UC students. State University Grant: $566 Million Covers tuition for CSU students. $108 Million Other State and Institutional Aid Net College Costs Are Lowest for Lowest-Income Students Cost of Attendance Less Gift Aid, Average Across CSU Campuses, 2015-16 Family Income Among CSU campuses, the average cost of attendance (tuition and living costs) for students $0-30,000 living off-campus was about $23,800 in 2015-16. $30,001-48,000 $48,001-75,000 $75,001-110,000 Over $110,000 5,000 10,000 15,000 $20,000 Net Price Education 3311 3322 CSU Has Seen Greater Improvement in Graduation Rates Than UC and CCC Six-Year Rates 90% UC 70 CSU 50 CCC 30 10 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Entering Freshman Cohort Achievement Gaps Exist CCC Six-Year Graduation Rates, 2011 Freshman Cohort 70% 60 50 40 30 20 10 Asian White Latino African Low Income Not Low American Income Race/Ethnicity Aid Status Though UC and CSU graduation rates are higher than CCC, achievement gaps generally follow a similar pattern at all three segments. Graduates Accrue More Units Than Degrees Typically Require Freshman Entrants, 2016-17 Graduating Class Required Units Excess CCC CSU UC 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Semester Units Health and Human Services 3333 H E A LT H A N D H U M A N S E RV I C E S Health and Human Services 3333 3344 State Administers Array of Health and Human Services (HHS) Programs HHS programs provide a variety of services to millions of California residents. These services include health insurance coverage, nutrition assistance, cash assistance, in-home care, and other services. Many individuals are enrolled in more than one program at a time. HHS Programs Serve Millions of Californians Caseloads, 2017-18 Estimated CalWORKs Cash assistance and employment services for low-income families. 1 .0 million Child Welfarea Services for children who have experienced abuse or neglect. 160,000 CalFresh Food assistance for low-income individuals and families. 4 .0 million WIC Food and nutrition services for pregnant Medi-Cal women, new mothers, Health care services for low-income Californians. and young children. 13 .3 million 1 .1 million SSI/SSP Cash assistance for low-income aged, blind, and disabled individuals. 1 .3 million Developmental Services In-Home Supportive Services Services for individuals with In-home personal care for low-income developmental disabilities. aged, blind, and disabled individuals. 320,000 560,000 a This includes children in foster care, guardianship and adoption programs, and family maintenance. Health and Human Services 3355 HHS Programs Funded by Multiple Sources Total Spending by Funding Source, 2017-18 Estimated Wider columns reflect greater total spending. Federal Funds Other State and Local Funds State General Fund Medi-Cal Developmental Services CalFresh About $90 billion $7 billion SSI/SSP $8 billion $10 billion CalWORKs IHSS $5 billion $11 billion WIC Child Welfare $1 billion $6 billion Spending Growth Varies Among HHS Programs Average Annual Change in Total Spending From 2012-13 to 2017-18 IHSS 12.4% Medi-Cal 10.2% Developmental Services 7.6% Child Welfare 0.9% SSI/SSP 0.4% CalWORKs -1.0% CalFresh -2.4% WIC -5.5% Health and Human Services 3355 3366 Most Californians Have Health Insurance, Obtained From a Variety of Sources 2017, LAO Estimates Income-Eligible for Individual Market Not Eligible for Medi-Cal or Subsidies but Insurance Individual Market Subsidies Not Purchasedb Because of Immigration Statusa Because Eligible for Medi-Cal of Income But Not Enrolled Medicare and Medi-Cal Medicare Uninsured Public Insurance Private Medi-Cal Insurance Employer- Sponsored Insurance Other Public Insurance Insurance Purchased on Individual Market Insurance Purchased With Federal Subsidies on Individual Market Without Federal Subsidies Note: Unless otherwise noted, estimates reflect LAO adjustments to California Health Interview Survey 2017 data. a From Preliminary CalSIM v 2.0 Regional Remaining Uninsured Projections, August 2016. b Individuals in this category could be ineligible for subsidies for reasons other than income. Health and Human Services 3377 California Health Care Spending 2017-18, Estimates (In Billions) By Payer or Payment Type By Service $400 Government Other Administration Individual Market Health Insurer Federal Subdsidies Individual Market Aministration Consumer Premiums and Profit Durable Medical Out-of-Pocket Other Professional Equipment Dental Drugs 300 Medicare Long-Term Care, Services, and Supportsa 200 Medi-Cal Physicians and Clinics 100 Employer- Sponsored Hospital Insurance a Includes care in skilled nursing facilities as well as personal care and home health services. Health and Human Services 3377 3388 Most Funds for Public Community Mental Health Go to Counties 2017-18, LAO Estimates Public community mental health includes publicly funded outpatient and inpatient mental health services and psychotropic medications provided primarily in community settings. It does not include services provided by state hospitals, prisons, Medicare, private insurance, or the K-12 educational system. Total Funds ($9.8 Billion) Federal Funds (Primarily State Through Medi-Cal) Loca R l e R v e e a n l u ig e n s m a ent M Se e r n v t i a c l e H s e F a u l n th d Ge $ n 0 e .8 r a B l il F lio u n nd $4.3 Billion $2.7 Billion (Prop 63) $2.0 Billion $0.2 Billion $0.6 Billion $1.3 Billion $3.0 Billion Medi-Cal Managed Care County Mental Health Services $7.9 Billionb a $1 n . d 9 B F i e llio e n - c for-Service Medi-Cal Specialty Services Psychotropic Drugs • Care coordination and case management • Therapy Outpatient Services • Day treatment and rehabilitation • Individual and group therapy • Crisis intervention and stabilization • Psychiatric inpatient services Psychiatric Inpatient Services • Residential treatment Mental Health Services Act Programs • Mental health programs including intensive and wraparound services, prevention and early intervention activities, and innovative projects Safety Net Services • Mental health services for low-income residents, including the uninsured a Includes funding that counties may use on substance use disorder services (not considered mental health services). b Some counties provide further funding for mental health using county General Funds. County General Funds are not included in listed funding amount. c Does not include funding for outpatient services that are provided through the fee-for-service system or in community clinics, due to data limitations. Health and Human Services 3399 Health and Human Services 3399 Demand for Long-Term Home- and Community-Based Services and Supports Is Growing Rapidly The state now prioritizes home- and community-based alternatives to institutional long-term care facilities for seniors and persons with disabilities. The two largest programs are In-Home Supportive Services (IHSS) and Developmental Services. The number of individuals eligible for these services has been increasing significantly. Caseload Growth Growth in IHSS Caseload Is Highest Outpaces Population Growth in the Youngest and Oldest Age Groups 2004-05 to 2017-18 2004-05 to 2017-18 69% 17 and Under 175% 59% (37,633 caseloads in 2017-18) growth since 2004-05 18 to 44 72% (76,011) 45 to 64 70% 11% (136,794) Developmental IHSS California Services State 65 to 74 48% Population (105,409) One potential reason for the growth in IHSS 75 to 84 43% is the increasing preference to age at home (123,109) rather than in an institution, like a skilled nursing facility (SNF). From 2004 to 2017, SNF utilization slightly decreased by 4%. 85 and Over 116% (85,967) Autism Cases Driving Caseload Growth in Developmental Services 2004-05 2017-18 Intellectual Disability Autism Autism cases grew 250% over the period. Reasons for the growth may include better Epilepsy diagnoses and awareness, higher parental ages, and environmental factors. Cerebral Palsy Other 40,000 80,000 120,000 160,000 200,000 Individuals may have more than one diagnosis. 4400 Poverty Concentrated Among Children and Adults With No College Degree Adults with no college degree Children 15% in poverty 19% in poverty 10% 5% In 2017, 5.2 million (13%) Californians lived below the federal poverty level. Seniors Adults With College Degrees One-Third of All Workers Make Less Than $15 per Hour Poverty Level Wage for a Single Earner in a... Share of All Jobs by Hourly Median Wage $15 100% Landscaper $14.67 Family of 4 Above $20 6% of all jobs Janitor $14.29 Security Guard $13.70 50% 5% of all jobs Hotel Desk Staff $13.29 $15-20 33% Housekeeper $12.67 Childcare Worker $12.64 Less than $15 per hour 10% of all jobs Retail $12.30 Family of 3 0% Home Care Aid $11.74 Fast Food Cook $11.50 Farmworker $11.43 12% of all jobs $11 Median Hourly Wage for Select Jobs Health and Human Services 4411 Key Cash and Cash-Like Assistance Programs for Low-Income Californians The state provides low-income families and individuals with cash grants and cash-like assistance for necessities, such as food and utilities. Individuals may be eligible for multiple programs. Below, we lay out the income eligibility rules for a family of three (single parent and two children). In addition to income, some programs rely on other factors to determine eligibility, such as age, disability status, and citizenship. Monthly Earned Income Eligibility Cap 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 $5,000 Cash Assistance CalWORKs. Cash assistance and employment services for low-income families. SSI/SSP. Cash assistance for low-income seniors and persons with disabilities. EITC. Refundable state and federal tax credit for low- to moderate-income. working families. Food Assistance Free or Reduced-Price School Meals. Free or low-cost school meals for low-income children. WIC. Food and nutrition services for low-income pregnant women, new mothers, and young children. CalFresh. Food assistance for low-income individuals and families. Subsidies Lifeline. Subsidized phone services for low-income households. LIHEAP. Financial assistance for low-income households to reduce heating and cooling costs. Subsidized Child Care and Preschool. Child care and preschool for qualifying low-income and working families. Number of Californians Served and Average Monthly Benefit Amounts Vary by Program 2017-18, LAO Estimates Children Receiving Free or Reduced-Price CalWORKs $567 School Meals 3 million SSI/SSP $737 2 million EITC $242 LIHEAP 1 million Free or R S ed c u h c o e o d l - M P e ri a c l e s $74 EITC Claimants Households CalWORKs Households WIC $62 Subsidized Child Care CalFresh $286 and Preschool Slots Lifeline $23 WIC Individuals LIHEAP $32 CalFresh Households Subsidized Child Care $714 SSI/SSP and Preschool Inidividuals Lifeline Households Health and Human Services 4411 4422 Other 4433 OT H E R Other 4433 4444 California Crime Rates Have Dropped Significantly, but Vary Widely Across Counties California and National Crime Rates Per 100,000 Residents 8,000 7,000 California Crime Rate 6,000 5,000 National Crime Rate 4,000 3,000 California Property Crime Rate 2,000 1,000 California Violent Crime Rate 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2017 Crime Rates Per 100,000 Residents 8,000 7,000 Property Crime Rate 6,000 Violent Crime Rate 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Sierra El Dorado Mono Colusa Sonoma California Kern Shasta Alpine Alameda San Francisco Counties With Least Crime Counties With Most Crime Other 4455 Total Adult Correctional Population Declined and Shifted to Counties Due to Policy Changes Over Last Decade State State Parole Parole County State State Community Prison County Prison Supervision Community Supervision County County Jail Jail Total Adult Correctional Population 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Some felonies converted to misdemeanors, Responsibiliy for certain Additional felonies reducing the time some offenders serve felony populations converted to while generally shifting them from state to “realigned” from the state misdemeanors with county responsibility. to the counties. passage of Proposition 47. Counties incentivized to keep felons under county jurisdiction rather than sending them to state prison. Other 4455 4466 Pollution Burden Varies Across California Communities CalEPA uses measures of air pollution, water pollution, and other key indicators to rank communities by their pollution burden. Rankings are used to help policy makers prioritize spending. Communities by Census Tract Pollution Burden Ranking (2017 Report) 80-100 60-80 40-60 0-40 Sacramento San Francisco Some communities in the Southern Fresno Central Valley generally rank higher on pollution burden measures such as drinking water contamination, pesticide use, and air indicators. Los Angeles San Diego In large urban areas, such as Los Angeles, the Bay Area, and San Diego, communities with high pollution burden rankings are often next to low-ranking communities. CalEPA = California Environmental Protection Agency. Other 4477 State Met 2020 GHG Target Early, but 2030 Target More Ambitous Million Metric Tons of GHGs 500 450 2020 400 Electricity Target 350 300 Transportation 2030 250 Target 200 Assembly Bill 32 (2006) limits GHGs to 1990 150 levels by 2020. Senate Bill 32 establishes a limit of 40% below 1990 levels by 2030. 100 Industry, Heating, Agriculture 50 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 Reductions Driven by Electricity Imports Major Policies to Meet 2030 Target Million Metric Tons of GHGs 70 Cap-and-trade Imported Electricity 60 Reduce methane from dairies and landfills 50 Reduce emissions from cars 40 In-State Generation and trucks 30 60% renewable electricity 20 Reduce carbon intensity of 10 transportation fuels Energy efficiency 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 GHG = Greenhouse Gases as measured in carbon dioxide equivalent. Other 4477 4488 Water Management in California Is Complex California's Precipitation Is Highly Variable Statewide Precipitation in Inches 45 40 Annual 35 30 25 20 40 Year Average 15 10 5 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Most Precipitation Falls in But Much of People’s Water Use Northern California Occurs in Southern and Central California Water Use in Millions of Acre Feet Urban Agriculture North Central South 5 10 15 20 25 So an extensive system of canals has been developed to transport water across the state . Annual Precipitation In Inches High 171.5 Low 1.82 State, Federal, or Local Canal Map created by California Department of Water Resources using PRISM (prism.oregonstate.edu). Other 4499 Wildfires in California State Has Many Areas of High Fire Risk Caused by: • Naturally fire-prone ecosystems • Historical forest management practices • Climate change With Risks Exacerbated by More Households in Fire-Prone Areas 2000 2,572,000 2012 2,858,000 Extreme 2 million acres Very High 23.9 million acres High 24.3 million acres Moderate 27.3 million acres Resulting In: Most of Largest and Most Destructive Increased State Spending on Wildfire Response Wildfires Occurred in Recent Years In 2017-18 Dollars, In Billions 12 $2.5 20 Largest 10 2.0 20 Most Destructive Fire Response 1.5 8 1.0 6 0.5 4 1998-99 02-03 06-07 10-11 14-1517-18 2 1920s 1940s 1960s 1980s 2000s Other 4499 5500 Funding for Highways, Roads, and Mass Transportation Comes From Many Sources 2018-19 Other Diesel Taxes General Funds General Fund Sales Taxes Other Gasoline Taxes Federal Cap and Trade Auction Transit Revenues Local Fares Truck Weight Fees General State Funds Transportation Improvement Fees Diesel Taxes Tolls and Other Gasoline Taxes $40 Billion 30 Federal 20 State 10 Local 2009-10 2011-12 2013-14 2015-16 2017-18 Other 5511 Much Transportation Infrastructure Needs Repairs or Replacement State Highways 51,000 Lanes Miles, 2017 Good 41% Fair 53% Poor 6% State Bridges 246 Million Square Feet of Deck Area, 2017 Poor 3% Good 75% Fair 22% At or Past Useful Life 43% Transit Infrastructure Mid-Life 51% $91 Billion Assets, 2015 New or Near-New 6% Drainage Under State Highways 10,647,900 Linear Feet, 2017 Good 65% Fair 24% Poor 12% Other 5511 5522 California Supports a Wide Range of State and Local Infrastructure Key State Key Local Infrastructure Infrastructure 335,000 lane miles of local roads 51,000 lane miles of highway Transportation 382 miles of urban mass transit 23 California State About 10,000 K-12 schools University campuses Education 10 University of California campuses 113 community college campuses 34 dams and About 1,500 dams and resevoirs water storage facilities 1,600 miles of levees About 18,000 miles of levees Resources 280 state parks and related sites Over 10,000 local parks 37 youth and adult correctional facilities 44 More than 110 conservation camps Criminal county-operated jails Justice 5 state mental health hospitals 2,100 courtrooms 95 armories 11 public seaports 8 veteran homes Other Other 5533 Most State Funding for Infrastructure Pays for Local Infrastructure Infrastructure Spending, 2007-08 to 2016-17 Total: $100 Billion State Local Transportation State Local Education State Local Resources State Local Criminal Justice State Local Other Most State Funding for Percent of General Fund Revenues Infrastructure Is Supported Used to Pay Off Bonds Has Fallen From Bonds in Recent Years Infrastructure Spending, 2007-08 to 2016-17 General Fund 7% 6 5 Special Funds 4 Bonds 3 2 1 95-96 00-01 05-06 10-11 15-16 Most bonds are repaid using the General Fund Other 5533 5544 Estimated $3 Billion in State IT Projects Scheduled to Finish in Next Five Yearsa In Millions (All Funds) As of September 2018, there were 28 state IT projects approved by, and under the oversight of, the California Department of Technology (CDT). The total cost of the projects, should the state complete them as currently envisioned, is an estimated $3 billion in total funds. State entities have proposed an additional 47 new IT projects pending approval by CDT, some of which have an estimated total cost of several hundreds of millions of dollars. PAVE Health Care Other state IT projects Provider Enrollment representing less than 2% SCVS of total state IT project costs Offender Video Surveillance $74 2% $386 eWIC-MIS 13% Electronic Benefit Finish Transfer System Finish 2018 $113 2023 4% CROS Tax Collection and Filing Finish System $281 2021 9% CBC $918 Online 30% Business $63 Filings 2% $63 Finish ARMS 2% 2019 Rehabilitation Case Management $ 2 7 % 2 Finish 2020 WellSTAR Fracking Well Database $406 13% FI$Cal State Financial EHRS $421 Management Offender Electronic 14% System Health Records CWS-CARES Child Welfare Information System a Total estimated IT project cost and scheduled finish date reflect the last approved project document(s) as of September 2018. Some projects' cost and finish date, such as CWS-CARES, are likely to change with the submission of new project documents. Other 5555 LAO Publications The Legislative Analyst’s Office (LAO) is a nonpartisan office that provides fiscal and policy information and advice to the Legislature. To request publications call (916) 445-4656. This report and others, as well as an e-mail subscription service, are available on the LAO’s website at www .lao .ca .gov. The LAO is located at 925 L Street, Suite 1000, Sacramento, CA 95814. Other 5555