The 2021-22 Budget: State Correctional Population Outlook

analysis full gutter The 2021-22 Budget: State Correctional Population Outlook NOVEMBER 2020 A major cost driver in spending on the state’s of the inmate, parolee, and ward populations correctional system is the number of inmates, through 2024-25; and (3) comment on how parolees, and juvenile wards that the state is changes in the sizes of these populations could responsible for housing and supervising. In this impact state correctional costs in both the near and analysis, we (1) provide an overview of the state long term. correctional population; (2) discuss our projections Overview of State Correctional Population The California Department of Corrections served a term for a serious or violent crime. The and Rehabilitation (CDCR) is responsible for the remaining individuals released from prison are incarceration of adult felons, including the provision generally supervised in the community by county of training, education, and health care services. The probation departments under what is known as 2020-21 Budget Act includes a total of $13.4 billion Post-Release Community Supervision (PRCS). from the General Fund to support the department’s In addition, about 750 wards are housed in operations. As of October 31, 2020, CDCR housed facilities operated by CDCR’s Division of Juvenile about 97,700 adult inmates in the state’s prison Justice (DJJ), which includes three facilities system. Most of these inmates are housed in the and one conservation camp. In approving the state’s 35 prisons and 42 conservation camps. (We 2020-21 budget package, however, the Legislature note, however, that the 2020-21 budget package adopted a plan to gradually shift or “realign” the reflects a plan to close two state prisons over the responsibility of DJJ for housing certain juvenile next few years.) The department also supervises offenders from the state to the counties. Individuals and treats about 56,500 adult parolees when they released from state juvenile facilities are generally are released from prison, generally after having supervised by county probation departments. State Correctional Population Declining In this section, we discuss our projections In order to mitigate the spread of COVID-19, the of the state correctional population through department has made various changes to its 2024-25. As we discuss below, two major factors operations, such as releasing certain inmates early. are projected to cause a decline in the number Some of these changes have, on net, reduced the of inmates, parolees, and wards housed and size of the overall state correctional population in supervised by the state. First, the emergence of the the near term. coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) represents Second, various policy changes have been a serious challenge for CDCR. This is because implemented that we estimate will further reduce the department’s staff and the populations they the size of the overall state correctional population. oversee are often in close proximity to one another. For example, Chapter 590 of 2019 (SB 136, 2021-22 LAO Budget Series 1 analysis full gutter Wiener) eliminates a one-year term added to awaiting transfer to state prison. The state individuals’ prison sentences (known as an provides counties $93.54 per day for each enhancement) for prior offenses in certain cases. inmate they house who would otherwise be in state prison. To date, the state has allocated Adult Inmate Population $31.2 million for this purpose. Inmate Population Currently Low Due • Early Releases From Prison. In July 2020, to COVID-19. Since the beginning of the CDCR began releasing certain inmates up to COVID-19 pandemic, the state inmate population 180 or 365 days before their normal release declined by about 25,400 (21 percent)—from date. Inmate eligibility for early release is about 123,100 inmates on February 28, 2020 to determined based on their criminal history, 97,700 on October 31, 2020. This decline is their likelihood of committing future crimes, largely due to specific actions taken by CDCR in and the need to reduce capacity at the prison responding to COVID-19, which are temporarily where they are housed. Between July and reducing the inmate population. Specifically, October 2020, 6,391 inmates were released COVID-19 has significantly reduced the inmate early. CDCR is continuing to release inmates— population in three main ways: when they come within 180 or 365 days of their normal release dates—as needed to • Reduced Prison Commitments. In May respond to the pandemic. Because many 2020, the administration indicated that of the inmates released early are placed on commitments to prison were about two-thirds PRCS, this action temporarily increases the of averages reported earlier in the year in PRCS population supervised by the counties. January and February. This notable reduction In recognition of this, the state supplements in prison commitments appears to be tied to the existing funding it provides counties a reduction in crime that occurred near the for supervising the PRCS population with beginning of the pandemic. According to the additional funding to accommodate the Public Policy Institute of California, reported temporary increase. Since July 2020, the state violent crimes declined by 16 percent and has allocated $7.1 million for this purpose. property crimes declined by 23 percent between February and April. Since then, Due to the continued pandemic, our projections violent crime has returned to pre-pandemic assume that the inmate population will remain levels while property crime remains low. around 100,000 in the near term. However, this is These crime trends likely are related to subject to significant uncertainty. This is because circumstances associated with COVID-19, it is unclear how long the pandemic will last, how such as shelter-in-place orders and soon effective treatments or vaccines will be widely restrictions on business openings. available, and how the pandemic will affect crime • Suspension of Intake From County Jails. and prison commitments going forward. In addition, On March 24, 2020, the Governor issued it is uncertain how CDCR will continue to respond Executive Order N-36-20, which directed the to the pandemic and how any actions different from Secretary of CDCR to temporarily suspend what have already been taken could change the intake to state prison—meaning inmates size of the inmate population. It is also possible that sentenced to prison would instead remain the state or federal courts—which are providing in county jail until the suspension is lifted. oversight of CDCR’s response to the pandemic— In recent months, CDCR resumed a limited could require the department to take further or amount of intake from jails with significant different actions. modifications to its intake process, such as Recent Policy Changes Could Continue to quarantining all inmates for 14 days after Keep Inmate Population Down After Pandemic. arrival. As of the beginning of October 2020, As noted above, the current inmate population there were nearly 8,000 inmates in county jail is a couple tens of thousands of inmates lower 2021-22 LAO Budget Series 2 analysis full gutter than it was before the pandemic. We project that participation in rehabilitation programs the population will remain around this level in allows inmates to earn credits that reduce the longer term, even after the pandemic is over. their prison terms, earlier access to these This is because several recent policy changes are programs will allow inmates to be released expected to reduce the amount of time inmates sooner. spend in prison and, thus, create downward • Various Other Sentencing Changes. pressure on the inmate population on an ongoing Various other sentencing changes enacted basis. These policy changes include: by the Legislature in recent years are expected to keep the inmate population low • Additional Inmate Credits. In 2016, voters over the next several years. For example, approved Proposition 57, which, among Chapter 1013 of 2018 (SB 1393, Mitchell) other provisions, expanded CDCR’s authority allows judges to decline to impose a to reduce inmates’ prison terms through five-year enhancement for those convicted credits. With the additional authority, CDCR of a serious felony who also had a prior has taken several steps to date to increase serious felony conviction. In addition, credits. For example, the department SB 136 eliminated a one-year sentence increased the maximum amount of time enhancement for prior offenses in certain most violent offenders can earn off their cases. sentences for good behavior from 15 percent to 20 percent. In addition, at the time of As shown in Figure 1, we project that various the Governor’s May Revision for 2020-21, policy changes discussed above will keep the CDCR announced plans to further reduce inmate population low even after the effects of certain inmates’ prison terms through credits the responses to COVID-19 pass. Specifically, inmates earn for good behavior. These and we estimate that the population will be around other actions related to the implementation 100,000 through 2024-25—a population level not of Proposition 57 are driving a long-term seen since the early 1990s. downward trend in the inmate population. • Reduced Reception Center Processing Time. Figure 1 When inmates are first Inmate Population Expected to Remain Near Current Low admitted to prison from county jail, they are placed 140,000 in a reception center where CDCR administers 120,000 various assessments to determine where they 100,000 will be housed and what 80,000 services they need. In May 2020, CDCR announced 60,000 plans to reduce the amount of time newly received 40,000 inmates spend in reception centers by streamlining 20,000 this process. This will allow these inmates to be 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 placed in their permanent Actual Projections housing assignment and access rehabilitation programs earlier. Because 2021-22 LAO Budget Series 3 analysis full gutter Adult Parolee Population up to a 90-day reduction to their time on parole if they participate in substance use Substantial Decline Projected in Parolee disorder treatment programs that involve the Population. Between February 28 and October use of medications that help address chemical 31, 2020, the state parolee population increased dependencies to alcohol or opioids. by 4,100 (8 percent) from about 52,400 to 56,500 parolees. This increase is largely due to In view of the above, we project that the parolee early releases from prison onto parole in response population will decline from its current level of to COVID-19. Going forward, we estimate that 56,500 parolees to roughly 33,000 parolees over the parolee population will be impacted by two the outlook period, as shown in Figure 2. major factors that will result in a net decline in Juvenile Ward Population the population. First, we estimate there will be an increase in releases to parole due to more people Juvenile Justice Realignment Projected being released from prison. This is a result of the to Significantly Reduce Ward Population. As early releases and sentencing changes discussed previously noted, the 2020-21 budget package above. Because there will be additional people included a plan to realign DJJ to the counties. being released onto parole supervision, this will Under the plan, DJJ will stop intake for most youth increase the average daily population of parolees. beginning on July 1, 2021. After that date, youth Second, recent policy changes adopted by the who would otherwise be sent to DJJ will generally Legislature will reduce the length of time people be placed under county supervision. As part of spend on parole—allowing them to be discharged this planned realignment, the state has committed earlier than they would otherwise. Because people to providing grants to counties to support their will spend less time on parole, we estimate that increased responsibilities. this change will result in a substantial decline in the As of October 31, 2020, there are about 760 average daily parole population that will more than wards housed in DJJ. In recent years, DJJ’s offset the above increase. The recent policy changes to parole include: Figure 2 Parolee Population Expected to Decline Significantly • Early Discharge and Reduced Length of 60,000 Parole. As part of the 2020-21 budget package, the Legislature established 50,000 an opportunity for parolees to earn early discharge after 40,000 one year of parole based on good behavior. The 30,000 Legislature also established maximum parole terms of 20,000 two or three years for most parolees. (Previously, parole terms were generally set at 10,000 three or more years.) • Substance Use Disorder 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 Treatment Parole Credits. Actual Projected Chapter 325 of 2020 (AB 1304, Waldron) allows certain parolees to receive 2021-22 LAO Budget Series 4 analysis full gutter population has been gradually increasing as a result as shown in Figure 3, after increasing somewhat of policy changes that resulted in more youth being in 2020-21, we estimate that the population will sent to DJJ rather than being sentenced as adults. decline by about 25 wards per month until reaching However, we expect that there will be a large an average daily population of around a couple decline in the ward population once intake stops dozen wards in 2024-25. on July 1, 2021 due to the realignment. Specifically, Figure 3 Ward Population to Decline Due to DJJ Realignment 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 Actual Projected DJJ = Division of Juvenile Justice. Projected Population Decline Will Reduce CDCR’s Future Cost Growth In this section, we discuss how our projected reduction in costs will essentially slow the expected changes to the state correctional population will growth in the department’s overall projected costs, affect CDCR’s costs over the outlook period. which is being driven by various factors such as Specifically, we estimate that the population employee compensation. changes will reduce costs in several hundreds Near-Term Cost Reductions Driven by of millions of dollars in the near term to around Fewer Inmates, Parolees, and Wards. In the $1.5 billion by 2024-25. As we discus below, this near term, we estimate that the state will likely 2021-22 LAO Budget Series 5 analysis full gutter save several hundred million dollars annually as a closure of prisons. Second, as a part of the closure result of the projected decline in inmates, wards, process, the state will likely bargain with unions and parolees. This is because CDCR pays for who represent the employees at the facilities slated some items—such as food or clothing—on a per for closure on how to minimize the effects on the person basis. Accordingly, the fewer inmates and workforce and day-to-day operations. For example, wards it is responsible for, the smaller CDCR’s the state could develop an agreement with unions food and clothing expenditures will be. In addition, specifying the amount of money that employees reductions in the size of the parole population who are required to relocate to fill CDCR vacancies will reduce CDCR’s workload associated with elsewhere would receive. Accordingly, to the extent supervising parolees. This will result in lower costs such limited-term costs emerge from the collective as the department adjusts its workforce to reflect bargaining process, they would temporarily offset changes in this workload. cost reductions associated with facility closure Long-Term Cost Reductions Driven by by some amount. In addition, any delays in the Closure of State Correctional Facilities. In bargaining process could delay facility closure, the longer term, we estimate that the projected which would in turn, delay the associated cost declines in the inmate and ward populations will reductions. allow CDCR to close certain facilities over the Reduction in Population-Related Costs outlook period. At this time, the administration Will Significantly Reduce Total CDCR Cost plans to close the Deuel Vocational Institution in Growth. The reduction in costs due to the Tracy in 2021-22 and a second, unnamed, prison population declines and facility closures will slow in 2022-23. In view of our inmate population down the significant growth in CDCR’s total projections, we find the state would be able to costs that is expected to otherwise occur over close three additional prisons by 2024-25. In the outlook period. The growth in CDCR costs addition, the department could close all three of the is largely driven by future increases in employee DJJ facilities within the next few years due to the compensation costs. This is because current planned realignment (not including the conservation employee compensation costs are temporarily camp which is expected to continue operating), low due to a plan approved as part of the though there is some uncertainty about the timing 2020-21 budget package to reduce statewide of closures. Closure of the above facilities will allow employee compensation cost by 10 percent. For CDCR to further reduce costs such as for staffing, example, an agreement signed with the bargaining utilities, and equipment currently associated with unit representing correctional staff will reduce each facility. In total, we estimate that annual 2020-21 costs by $381 million largely through the savings associated with closing five prisons and deferral of a previously planned 3 percent general three DJJ facilities would be around $1 billion by salary increase and a 4.62 percent reduction in pay 2024-25. in exchange for 12 hours of paid leave per month. Total Reduction in Costs From Population However, when these temporary pay reductions Decline Could Be Substantial. We estimate expire, CDCR’s employee compensation costs are that savings associated with the reduction in the likely to increase substantially. In total, we project inmate, parolee, and ward populations, as well that employee compensation costs will increase by as the closure of five state prisons and three DJJ roughly $2.5 billion between 2020-21 and 2024-25. facilities, will total $1.5 billion annually by the end Accordingly, the reduction in population-related of the outlook period. We note, however, that there costs will result in CDCR’s budget growing by only is some uncertainty about when the full savings around $1 billion by 2024-25. (For more information associated with facility closures will be achieved. on employee compensation and other CDCR cost First, the need to maintain a low population density drivers in recent years, see State Correctional in the prisons due to the pandemic could delay the Spending Increased Despite Significant Population Reductions.) 2021-22 LAO Budget Series 6 analysis full gutter LAO Publications This report was prepared by Caitlin O’Neil and Luke Koushmaro and reviewed by Drew Soderborg and Anthony Simbol. The Legislative Analyst’s Office (LAO) is a nonpartisan office that provides fiscal and policy information and advice to the Legislature. 2021-22 LAO Budget Series 7