Climate Change Impacts Across California - Crosscutting Issues

Climate Change Impacts Across California CROSSCUTTING Crosscutting Issues ISSUES Other Reports Summary in This Series Addressing the widespread impacts of climate change represents a significant challenge for the state, and one that will increasingly occupy the Legislature’s agenda in the coming years. A changing climate presents California with five key climate HEALTH hazards: (1) higher temperatures and extreme heat events, (2) more severe wildfires, (3) more frequent and intense droughts, (4) flooding due to extreme precipitation events, and (5) coastal flooding and erosion from sea-level rise. These hazards will threaten public health, safety, and well-being—including from life-threatening events, damage HOUSING to public and private property and infrastructure, and impaired natural resources. More frequent extreme weather and climate-related emergencies will be increasingly disruptive for California’s residents and economy. These disruptions often will be K-12 EDUCATION unpredictable and will include (1) short-term incidents, such as when wildfire smoke or extreme heat events make it unsafe to work or recreate outside; (2) longer-term impacts, such as when floods or fires damage homes, businesses, and infrastructure; and (3) permanent changes, such as higher sea levels or more prolonged droughts causing TRANSPORTATION current activities to become impractical in certain regions. These impacts will not affect all Californians equally—certain residents will be more vulnerable to experiencing negative impacts based on their underlying health conditions, where they live, their jobs, and the level of economic resources upon which they can draw. Taking steps to prepare WORKERS & EMPLOYERS for, respond to, and recover from climate change impacts will be costly. Although the federal government may provide some funding for these activities, many of the costs will be borne by the state, local governments, and private businesses and residents. Given the magnitude of climate change impacts California already is beginning to experience, the Legislature will confront persistent questions about how the state should respond. While the companion reports in this series highlight climate change issues specific to different sectors, certain major themes are applicable across all policy areas. One key question will be what role state programs and policies can and should play in adapting to climate change, including how they interact with local adaptation activities, and how they should be funded. For example, the Legislature might consider adopting statewide guidance and standards, assessing and addressing data gaps, offering support and coordination, and providing targeted fiscal support. The Legislature also will want to think about steps the state can take—and avoid taking—to ensure it does not exacerbate climate impacts, as well as how to prioritize across its various climate response priorities. Given that certain groups—such as low-income households, medically sensitive populations, and workers in outdoor industries— generally are more vulnerable to the effects of climate change, the Legislature may want to consider how it can target state programs in ways that support these populations. Gabriel Petek Ap1ril 2022 LEGISLATIVE ANALYST’S OFFICE Introduction This report contains four primary sections: (1) a Because some degree of climate change description of the five key climate hazards affecting already is occurring and more changes are California, (2) the major ways those hazards inevitable, this report focuses primarily on how impact sectors across the state, (3) significant the Legislature can think about responding to existing state-level efforts underway to address resulting impacts. This is particularly important climate change impacts, and (4) key issues for because Californians will increasingly directly the Legislature to consider in response to these experience climate change impacts in their impacts. Given the complexity of these issues, this communities, workplaces, and homes. Of report does not contain explicit recommendations note, the state also is engaged in numerous or a specific path forward; rather, it is intended efforts to limit the magnitude of climate change as a framing document to help the Legislature by enacting policies and programs to reduce adopt a “climate lens” across its policy decisions. emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), though the ultimate effects of such initiatives also will require larger complementary worldwide efforts. California’s Five Major Climate Hazards As a result of human activities that warm they will be part of California’s future. Indeed, the planet, the global climate is changing. many of these changing trends and effects While efforts are underway—across the state, already are beginning to occur—2021 brought country, and internationally—to limit the extent record-breaking temperatures, wildfires, of this warming, some degree of climate precipitation events, and drought conditions change already is occurring, and therefore across the state. Below, we discuss each of some impacts are inevitable. These impacts California’s climate hazards in more detail. are widespread and affect humans, animals, Temperature Increases and the built environment, and natural resources Periods of Extreme Heat across the globe—including in California. As shown in Figure 2, a moderate global As shown in Figure 1, climate stressors emissions climate model projects increases present California with five key climate hazards: in annual average maximum temperatures in (1) extreme heat events, (2) more severe wildfires, California throughout the 21st century compared (3) more frequent and intense droughts, (4) inland to historical baseline averages—ranging from flooding due to extreme precipitation events, an average of roughly 4 degrees Fahrenheit and (5) coastal flooding and erosion from between 2035 to 2064 to roughly 6 degrees sea-level rise. These hazards will impact public Fahrenheit throughout the last 30 years of the health and safety, public and private property century. As illustrated in the figure, inland areas will and infrastructure, and natural resources. experience greater increases in average maximum temperatures than coastal regions. We are Although uncertainty remains about the already beginning to see these changes. With the timing and magnitude of when and how exception of 2019, the years from 2014 through these hazards and their resulting impacts 2020 experienced the six highest average annual will manifest, the science is conclusive that 2 LEGISLATIVE ANALYST’S OFFICE Figure 1 Impacts of Climate Change on Californians Higher Changing Rising sea temperatures hydrologic levels Climate patterns Stressors Extreme Wildfires Droughts Inland Coastal heat events flooding flooding and erosion Hazards ! Public health risks Damage to property Life-threatening Loss of biodiversity and infrastructure events and impaired Major natural resources Impacts Figure 2 Projected Increases in Statewide Average Maximum Temperatures Mid-Century 2035-2064 End of Century 2070-2099 Fahrenheit +3.6° +5.4° +7.2° Reflects changes from historical baseline 30-year average maximum temperatures (1961-1990). These estimates assume the moderate climate change scenario of "RCP 4.5," in which international practices result in the rate of worldwide greenhouse gas emissions slowly declining in the coming decades. Data from www.Cal-Adapt.org LEGISLATIVE ANALYST’S OFFICE 3 temperatures ever recorded in the state. Moreover, which the state historically has depended for its average summer temperatures in California annual water supply, at the same time that they were the hottest on record in 2021, breaking the increase the demand for irrigation water in both previous June-through-August record set in 2017. agricultural and urban settings. The period of 2012 through 2015 represents the state’s four driest In addition to higher average temperatures, consecutive years on record in terms of statewide California also will experience more frequent, precipitation, and 2021 is the third driest single intense, and prolonged heatwaves. While this year. Moreover, 2022 already experienced the will be true statewide, the changes will be more driest consecutive January and February in the substantial in certain regions. For example, Sierra Nevada, based on records dating back over between 1961 and 1990, Los Angeles and 100 years. Droughts have widespread impacts Sacramento Counties each experienced an across the state, including mandatory water average of four days of extreme heat per year use restrictions, reductions in agricultural crop (defined as days when the maximum temperature production, over-pumping of groundwater—which exceeded each county’s respective 98th percentile damages infrastructure from land sinking and historical temperature for a given date). Climate dries up domestic wells in some communities— models project that by mid-century, Los Angeles and degraded habitats for fish and wildlife. County will experience an average of nine days of extreme heat per year, growing to 12 days Increased Risk of Floods per year by the final decades of the century. Climate models predict that California will In contrast, Sacramento County is projected to experience less frequent but more intense storm experience 20 days per year of extreme heat by patterns in the coming decades, including the mid-century and 28 days annually by the end state’s precipitation more frequently falling as rain of the century. These trends will be even more rather than snow compared to historical trends. severe in some inland counties. For example, in Additionally, the state’s streams and rivers will Fresno County, the historical trends of five days swell more in some years from earlier and faster of extreme heat per year are projected to increase spring snowmelt caused by higher temperatures. to 29 days annually between 2035 and 2064 Scientists suggest the combination of these and 43 days annually between 2070 and 2099. factors could lead to a 50 percent increase in runoff in future years, challenging the capacity of As discussed in greater detail below, these the state’s existing reservoirs, canals, levees, and prolonged periods of heat will have negative other flood control systems, and increasing the impacts on human health—such as by raising risk of inland flooding. Floods cause significant risk the risks of heat stroke and dehydration—as well to human life, and also damage roads, buildings, impair agricultural production and natural habitats. and other infrastructure. One recent study More Frequent and Intense Droughts conducted by First Street Foundation suggests that by 2050, 1.5 million properties in California Warmer temperatures also contribute to more will face “substantial risk” of flooding, representing frequent and intense droughts by leading to a an increase of 60,000 compared to the number of decline in and faster melting of winter snowpack, properties currently meeting that characterization. greater rates of evaporation, and drier soils. These conditions decrease the amount of spring and early summer snowmelt runoff upon 4 LEGISLATIVE ANALYST’S OFFICE More Severe Wildfires they also destroy fish and wildlife habitats. Moreover, intense wildfires can also impair air Warmer average temperatures and drier quality throughout the state. In recent years, environments also create conditions that lead smoke from wildfires has grown substantially and to extreme, high-severity wildfires. These has been a major contributor to air pollution in conditions increasingly dry out vegetation and the western United States—making up roughly lengthen the wildfire season, which raise wildfire half of small particulate matter in some regions, risks. Additionally, more frequent and intense compared to less than 20 percent a decade ago. droughts put stress on trees and make them The degree to which climate change will impact more susceptible to pest infestations. This, in particulate emissions in the future is subject to turn, can lead to more diseased, dying, and some uncertainty, but researchers have estimated dead trees, which can exacerbate the severity that particulate matter in fire-prone areas could of wildfires by providing more combustible fuels. roughly double by the end of the century. According to the state’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment, by 2100, the frequency Coastal Flooding and Erosion of extreme wildfires burning over 25,000 acres From Rising Sea Levels could increase by nearly 50 percent. Sea levels along the California coast are As with other climate hazards, the state projected to rise by about six inches by 2030 already is beginning to experience an increase and as much as seven to ten feet by 2100 in severe wildfires. Figure 3 shows how most of compared to 2000 levels, depending upon the California’s largest and most destructive wildfires degree of warming the planet experiences. have occurred in recent decades. This pattern These impacts will be compounded by periodic has been particularly notable in the last few years, increases in sea levels caused by storm surges, which have seen some of the worst wildfires in the exceptionally high “king tides,” or El Niño events. state’s recorded history. For example, the 2018 As shown in Figure 4 on the next page, these wildfire season included the Camp Fire in Butte County, Figure 3 which became the single Most of the Largest and Most Destructive most damaging wildfire in Wildfires Have Occurred in Recent Decades state history with nearly 19,000 structures destroyed and 85 fatalities, including the 9 near-total destruction of the 8 town of Paradise. Moreover, 20 Largest 7 20 Most Destructive 5 of the 20 most destructive 6 wildfires in the state’s history 5 occurred in 2020 alone, with 4 an additional two in 2021. 3 2 Not only do high-severity 1 wildfires take lives and level homes, businesses, and 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020sa community infrastructure, a Includes wildfires that occurred in 2020 and 2021. LEGISLATIVE ANALYST’S OFFICE 5 Figure 4 Sea-Level Rise Will Impact the California Coast in Multiple Ways Flooding Advancing seas and waves will cause both permanent and periodic flooding along the coast affecting buildings, infrastructure, and natural resources. Erosion Waves crashing further up the shore will erode sand away from beaches and coastal cliff walls. Rising Groundwater Higher ocean water levels could force up the water levels underneath the ground as well, leading to flooding, saltwater intrusion into fresh groundwater supplies, and toxic contamination by carrying hazardous materials to the surface. 6 LEGISLATIVE ANALYST’S OFFICE changing conditions will impact the coast by communities, natural resources, and drinking leading to periodic and permanent flooding, and agricultural water supplies. For example, eroding sand away from coastal cliff walls and a 2015 economic assessment by the Risky beaches, and forcing groundwater levels to rise. Business Project estimated that if current global GHG emission trends continue, between $8 billion The impacts of sea-level rise along California’s and $10 billion of existing property in California is coast will be widespread, affecting public likely to be underwater by 2050, with an additional infrastructure, private property, vulnerable $6 billion to $10 billion at risk during high tide. Major Crosscutting Impacts on California The climate hazards discussed above Threats to People’s Health have a number of significant effects on and Well-Being residents, properties and infrastructure, Changing Climate Brings Wide Range and natural resources across the state. of Health Impacts. As shown in Figure 5, climate change has a variety of effects on human health. Some of the most direct impacts Figure 5 Climate Change Has a Variety of Health Effects Climate Change Impact Examples of Health Effects Heat-related illness and death, including heat More frequent and severe extreme heat events. stroke, dehydration, cardiovascular failure, and kidney disease. Air pollution, including particulate matter, from Death and illnesses related to asthma, chronic wildfire smoke. obstructive pulmonary disease, and pneumonia. Injuries and fatalities from disasters, inability to More frequent and severe disasters, such as operate certain medical equipment during Public floods and wildfires. Safety Power Shutoffs, and behavioral health impacts related to traumatic events. Less secure water and food supply due to more Higher incidence of malnutrition frequent drought and warming temperatures. and diarrheal disease. Reduced water quality due to runoff from extreme Increased prevalence of cholera precipitation events and warming water temperatures. and harmful algal blooms in rivers and lakes. Changes in the climate conditions that support Higher incidence of vector-borne diseases, different diseases. such as Lyme disease and West Nile virus. Source: Adapted from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Senate Office of Research. LEGISLATIVE ANALYST’S OFFICE 7 include injuries, illnesses, and deaths related Adverse Health Effects From Wildfire to extreme heat; disaster events (such as Smoke Also Are Substantial. Poor air quality floods and wildfires); air pollution from wildfire also has been linked to a wide variety of adverse smoke; impaired water quality due to runoff health effects, including increased risk of asthma, from extreme precipitation events and warming cardiovascular disease, cognitive impairment, temperatures; impacts on food and water and premature births. While overall health effects supplies from more frequent droughts; and from wildfire smoke still are being studied, a increasing prevalence of certain diseases. rough estimate suggests wildfire smoke in 2020 caused about 20 deaths per 100,000 adults Extreme Heat Among Most Significant over the age of 65. Researchers suggest that Factors Impacting Mortality in California. particulate matter in fire-prone areas could Temperature-related mortality (including from roughly double by the end of the century, extreme heat) is projected to be among the most and that a 50 percent increase in wildfire smoke deadly and costly impacts of climate change could increase deaths of older adults by an in certain locations around the globe. Higher additional 9 to 20 per 100,000 people annually. temperatures and extreme heat can lead to heat stroke and increase the risk of or exacerbate Damage to Private Property cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, and Public Infrastructure kidney failure, and preterm births. Under a Wide Range of Structures and Facilities moderate climate change scenario—which Face Threat of Damage. A changing climate and assumes that international practices result in more frequent disasters will impact many existing the rate of worldwide GHG emissions slowly buildings and structures across the state. This declining in the coming decades, somewhat includes both private properties—such as houses constraining the magnitude of global temperature and businesses—as well as infrastructure owned increases—higher temperatures are projected by the state and local governments—including to cause 9 deaths per 100,000 people in roads and highways, schools, and water treatment California annually. By comparison, this is and conveyance systems. For example, statewide roughly equivalent to the 2019 annual mortality transportation systems will experience a range rate from automobile accidents in California. of impacts, such as sea-level rise undermining coastal railways and bridges, intense storms Even though extreme heat will be more causing mudslides and flooding of highways, and frequent and severe in hotter regions of the heatwaves causing buckling and rutting of roads. state, one national study estimates that Moreover, many existing structures were built to temperature-related mortality is actually projected different standards than are commonplace today, to be higher in cooler regions because they are less making them less resilient to the effects of climate prepared for the heat (for example, fewer buildings change. For instance, many older homes were have air conditioning). Significant differences built with features—such as wood shake roofs, in the projected number of heat-related deaths cedar siding, or single-paned windows—that make also exist within a particular region or city. For them more vulnerable to igniting during wildfires. instance, urban areas with a large percentage of impervious surfaces and relatively little shade— Evolving Conditions Are Changing Risk also known as urban heat islands—tend to be Exposure. Traditionally, land-use decisions— hotter than surrounding areas. As discussed such as where to construct housing, locate public in more detail below, adverse health effects of buildings such as schools, or build roads—were hotter temperatures will be particularly significant informed by historical trends, such as how in some locations and for certain populations. 8 LEGISLATIVE ANALYST’S OFFICE often an area had flooded in the past. Changing More Intense Impacts for Certain conditions make historical data less reliable for Vulnerable Populations assessing current and future threats, meaning Some Californians Are More Vulnerable to many existing structures now face greater risks Negative Climate Change Impacts. Climate in their current locations compared to when they change impacts will not affect all Californians were built. For example, in the San Francisco equally. Certain residents will be more vulnerable Bay Area alone, a recent study led by the Bay to experiencing negative impacts, based on their Conservation and Development Commission underlying health conditions, where they live, their estimated that with an anticipated four feet of jobs, and the level of economic resources upon flooding in the region from sea-level rise over the which they can draw. For example, some of the next 40 to 100 years, 13,000 existing housing units most significant climate impacts—such as heat and 104,000 existing job spaces will no longer and wildfire smoke—disproportionately affect be usable. Additional research suggests that certain medically vulnerable groups, including: 15 wastewater treatment plants in California will children and the elderly, populations that have be exposed to flooding with three feet of sea-level underlying medical conditions (such as asthma rise, growing to 36 facilities with six feet of and cardiovascular disease), and populations sea-level rise. Moreover, about 1 million structures that spend a lot of time outdoors (such as currently are located in areas that the California homeless populations and outdoor workers). Department of Forestry and Fire Protection classifies as being at very high risk of wildfires. Lower-Income Households and Communities Are Particularly Vulnerable. Some Existing Structures and In general, low-income households and Infrastructure Will Require Modification communities are expected to bear a or Relocation to Remain Usable. Many disproportionate burden because they have existing buildings and infrastructure will need to fewer resources for adapting to various climate be modified in order to avoid serious damage impacts. For example, low-income households from climate change impacts. For instance, have less money to purchase and operate air due to warmer average temperatures and more conditioning units during extreme heat events, frequent heatwaves, school facilities in historically air filters to moderate wildfire smoke, or back-up temperate regions may need to consider electricity generators to provide electricity during remodeling playgrounds with more heat-resistant Public Safety Power Shutoff events. Low-income materials and shade structures, or adding air residents also are more likely to live in older conditioning systems. Some impacted roads, housing that requires modifications—such as air railways, bridges, and ports will need to be conditioning or more fire-resistant exteriors—to modified or relocated to remain accessible. Certain adapt to increased risks. Notably, low-income homes—particularly older homes—may also need residents also are more likely to live in rental to add features such as air conditioning, modern housing, and thus more likely to be reliant on insulation, and air filtration to mitigate the effects landlords to conduct modifications to their of extreme heat and outdoor wildfire smoke. homes to mitigate the effects of climate change. For instance, while current state regulations require that landlords provide their tenants with heating facilities to maintain a minimum temperature of 70 degrees, there is no comparable requirement LEGISLATIVE ANALYST’S OFFICE 9 for cooling mechanisms to avoid exceeding any that face greater exposure to extreme heat and maximum threshold, meaning renters could be wildfire smoke. Specifically, while Latino workers at greater risk during periods of extreme heat. represent about 38 percent of the state’s overall workforce, they account for 60 percent of the Discriminatory Housing Policies workers in primarily outdoor-based industries. Correspond to Increased Community Vulnerabilities. Many neighborhoods facing More Frequent Disruptions disproportionate levels of risk from climate and Instability impacts also align with those that experienced Climate Impacts Will Be Disruptive historical housing discrimination policies. That for California’s Residents and Economy. is, historical housing policies may be directly More frequent extreme weather and climate-related responsible for some unequal exposure to emergencies often will be unpredictable and will current and growing climate risks. Specifically, include (1) short-term incidents, such as when recent research suggests that communities the wildfire smoke or extreme heat events make it federal government designated in the 1930s as unsafe to work or recreate outside; (2) longer-term “hazardous” for real estate investment through a impacts, such as when floods or fires damage process known as redlining tend to experience homes, businesses, and infrastructure; and hotter temperatures and more flood risk than (3) permanent changes, such as higher sea levels other areas. Similarly, rural communities that are at or more prolonged droughts causing current greater risk of experiencing water shortages due activities to become impractical in certain regions. to droughts tend to be home to large proportions of households with residents of color and For example, K-12 schools and child care who earn lower incomes. This is due in part to providers will increasingly be impacted by historical discriminatory practices that restricted disasters such as wildfires and floods interrupting which racial groups could live and purchase their ability to offer in-person educational services. homes in the communities that contained More frequent school closures will cause larger and more developed water systems. disruptions to instruction, school meals, and child care—leading to a greater risk of food insecurity, Climate Change Impacts Pose Particular learning loss, and poorer academic outcomes Risks for Workers in Certain Industries. for impacted students, as well as impairing their Greater climate risk is also aligned with particular parents’ ability to work. These impacts are already occupations. Specifically, workers in industries occurring more regularly. As shown in Figure 6, where most of the work occurs outdoors— from 2017-18 through 2019-20, the state averaged including agricultural production; forestry; more than 1,600 schools closed due to wildfires commercial and residential construction; and annually, compared to an annual average of the outdoor-based hospitality, services, and about 70 schools from 2008-09 to 2016-17. recreation industries—will be more affected by These closures affected an average of about climate change based on their greater exposure 950,000 students per year in 2017-18 through to extreme heat and wildfire smoke. In general, 2019-20. Schools and child care providers will these industries tend to pay low- and middle-wage need to plan for how they can maintain continuity salaries. More than 2 million Californians work of education and services—particularly for more in these jobs, representing about 10 percent vulnerable and impacted students—as climate of the state’s overall workforce. Furthermore, change disruptions become more frequent. Latino workers make up a disproportionate share of the workforce in outdoor industries 10 LEGISLATIVE ANALYST’S OFFICE Work in Some Industries May Also Become temperatures and more frequent severe droughts Less Stable. Changing climate patterns will also likely will make it difficult for existing levels and make work less stable and predictable for many methods of agricultural operations in the Central industries and workers. In particular, incidents like Valley to remain operationally or economically extreme heat, fires, smoke, and severe storms viable in the coming years. A significant will cause work interruptions and instability in decrease in agricultural production could have primarily outdoor-based industries such as considerable employment impacts in that region, construction, tourism, recreation, agriculture, such as fewer jobs overall and unpredictable and logistics/goods movement. For example, changes to the nature of remaining jobs. work and economic activity will be disrupted by Loss of Biodiversity and flooding of ports, docks, surrounding roadways, Natural Resources or adjacent railways through which goods are distributed—affecting deliveries of imports across Increasing Temperatures and Severe the state, as well as exports such as Central Valley Weather Events Threaten State’s Fish and agricultural products that are shipped throughout Wildlife, Ecosystems, and Native Plants. the world. In addition to episodic disruptions, A 2018 state report estimated that under current some of the most affected industries and regions GHG emissions levels, between 45 percent to may need to make long-term adjustments to 56 percent of the natural vegetation in California remain viable, forcing some workers to relocate, will be climatically stressed by 2100. Some of train to adopt new industry practices, or shift these impacts already are evident. For example, to new types of work. For instance, higher an estimated 172 million trees have died in Figure 6 Students Have Experienced Increased School Closures Due to Wildfires 2,500 1,200,000 1,000,000 2,000 Students impacted 800,000 Schools impacted 1,500 600,000 1,000 400,000 500 200,000 2002-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 Figure adapted from data compiled by CalMatters in August 2020 (https://calmatters.org/education/2020/08/wildfires-school-plans-students/). LEGISLATIVE ANALYST’S OFFICE 11 California’s forests since 2010 due to multiple the state’s iconic beaches and 58 percent of years of low moisture and drought conditions, its marshes. Humans also are dependent on high temperatures, and resulting bark beetle these coastal environments, both for the natural infestations. These dead trees provided fuel for processes that they provide (such as providing and likely exacerbated the severe wildfires that protection from flooding and filtering stormwater have occurred over the past decade, which runoff to improve water quality), as well as subsequently negatively impacted those forest their recreational benefits. Millions of California habitats and the wildlife they contained. residents visit the coast annually to fish, swim, surf, and enjoy nature, particularly along the Warmer temperatures and less water runoff one-third of the coastline owned by the State Parks during dry years also impair conditions for fish, system. A recent scientific study by United States aquatic wildlife, and migratory birds that depend Geological Survey researchers predicted that on the state’s rivers, streams, and wetlands. under scenarios of three feet to six feet of sea-level For example, lower and warmer water levels in rise, up to two-thirds of Southern California the Sacramento River in the summers of 2014 beaches may become completely eroded by 2100. and 2015 resulted in the death of 95 percent of Such a loss would impact not only Californians’ the river’s juvenile winter-run Chinook salmon access to and enjoyment of key public resources, in those years—practically eliminating two out but also beach-dependent local economies. of three existing cohorts of this endangered species. Similarly poor conditions replicated Increased State, Local, catastrophic outcomes for this species in the and Private Costs summer of 2021, when state officials estimated Adapting to the Impacts of Climate just 2 percent of migrating juveniles survived. Change Will Be Costly. While California will Significant declines—or potential permanent not be able to avoid all of the effects of climate extinctions—of the state’s native fish species change, opportunities to reduce the magnitude represent not just a loss of public trust natural of potential impacts do exist. Yet taking steps to resources, but also impair the state’s fishing prepare for, respond to, and recover from climate industry and economy, as well as dispossess change impacts will be costly. Although the some of California’s Native American communities federal government may provide some funding for of essential elements of their tribal culture. these activities, many of the costs will be borne by the state, local governments, and private Sea-Level Rise Also Poses Threat to businesses and residents. Some of these costs Ecological Resources. Inundation of coastal will be one time or limited term in nature—such beaches, dunes, and wetlands threatens to impair as to develop plans or modify infrastructure— or eliminate important habitats for fish, plants, and some will be recurring and ongoing—such marine mammals, and migratory birds. Higher sea as increased operation of air conditioning units levels also will cause salt water to encroach into— or clearing out regrowth of forest underbrush. thereby degrading—coastal estuaries where fish and wildlife currently depend upon freshwater The State Will Incur Some Costs… conditions. A 2018 report by the State Coastal Some of the costs of preparing for climate Conservancy and The Nature Conservancy change impacts will fall on the state. For example, found that 55 percent of California’s existing the costs associated with adapting the state coastal habitats are highly vulnerable to five transportation system to withstand the impacts of feet of sea-level rise, including 60 percent of 12 LEGISLATIVE ANALYST’S OFFICE climate change—including using new materials, quality unsafe to attend school. Costs for cities responding to more frequent maintenance needs and counties might include adding drainage to from more extreme conditions, and modifying roads to manage more intense rain events, or or relocating certain infrastructure—likely will modifying water treatment plants located along be higher than current expenditure levels. the coast to accommodate higher sea levels. Additionally, as wildfires and other extreme …And Private Residents and Businesses. climate events become more frequent, the state Residents and businesses also will incur costs likely will need to fund an expanded workforce related to climate adaptation. For instance, as and more worker overtime to respond to these extreme weather events become more common, emergencies. The state likely also will incur employers will have to implement adaptation costs from the need to expand its workforce measures to ensure worker safety and minimize in other areas to respond to climate change the loss in labor productivity. These might impacts—such as by hiring additional engineers include purchasing additional air filters and and scientists to assess vulnerabilities, plan for masks to protect workers from smoke, incurring adaptation strategies, and design and implement higher utility costs from an increased need for the state’s responses to climate risks. air conditioning, changing traditional hours of …As Will Local Governments… Like the operation, providing additional training to help state, local governments also will face costs prevent and identify heat-related illnesses, or associated with modifying and protecting their modifying facilities to accommodate periodic infrastructure and operations. For example, flooding (such as by moving sensitive equipment adaptation costs for schools might include to higher floors). Similarly, costs associated with higher utility bills from increased reliance on modifying and maintaining existing homes— air conditioning during extremely hot days, such as replacing roofs or siding to be more fire making necessary facility modifications, and resistant, adding air conditioning and filtration purchasing additional computers and technology for heat and smoke, or elevating to reduce upgrades to potentially allow for temporary flood risk—will fall largely on homeowners. shifts to remote learning when wildfires make air Significant Existing State-Level Efforts to Address Climate Impacts Given that California is even now beginning the General Fund—for a variety of activities to to experience the effects of climate change, respond to climate impacts. This included funding certain climate adaptation efforts are already targeted for activities responding to each of the five underway at the local, regional, and state levels. climate hazards California is experiencing. While Below, we highlight some of the most significant some of this funding will be used for state-level crosscutting state-level efforts and funding. activities, the majority will be allocated as grants to local governments and partners. Particularly Significant Funding in 2021-22 Budget within the climate resilience funding package, Package. As summarized in Figure 7 on the some of the funding categories are targeted next page, the 2021-22 budget package included specifically to assist vulnerable communities. $9.3 billion over three years—primarily from LEGISLATIVE ANALYST’S OFFICE 13 Figure 7 Climate Adaptation Funding Packages Included in 2021-22 Budget (In Millions) Package Climate Hazard Focus 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 Totals Drought and Water Resilience Droughts, floods $3,269 $880 $500 $4,649 Wildfire and Forest Resilience Wildfires 988 — — 988 Climate Resilience Sea-level rise, extreme heat, droughts 369 2,090 1,230 3,689 Totals $4,625 $2,970 $1,730 $9,325 California Climate Adaptation Strategy. • Since 2013-14, the state has provided In November 2021, the California Natural $31 million in grants through the California Resources Agency released a draft strategic Coastal Commission for local entities plan establishing priorities and goals for building to update their local coastal plans. statewide resilience to the impacts of climate Additionally, Chapter 236 of 2021 (SB 1, change. The document contains outcome-based Atkins) expanded existing coastal planning priorities—many drawn from the hazard-specific activities by local governments and plans listed below—and identifies success the commission to include preparation metrics and time lines for specific actions. for sea-level rise, and also established The administration intends that it serve as a the California Sea Level Rise State and framework to guide climate adaptation activities Regional Support Collaborative to provide across sectors and regions in California. information and support to local entities. Local Planning Requirements and • The California Adaptation Planning Resources. The state has taken several Guide, updated by the Governor’s steps to ensure that local governments plan Office of Emergency Services in 2020, is for the impacts of climate change, including: designed to help local entities integrate best practices and current science into • Chapter 608 of 2015 (SB 379, Jackson) their adaptation planning efforts. required that climate change adaptation and resilience be addressed in the safety Integrated Climate Adaptation and elements of all general plans, and Chapters Resiliency Program (ICARP). Established by 202 (SB 99, Nielsen) and 681 (AB 747, Chapter 606 of 2015 (SB 246, Wieckowski), ICARP Levine) of 2019 required that safety is housed at the Governor’s Office of Planning elements identify evacuation routes. and Research (OPR) and helps to coordinate the statewide response to climate change impacts. • Chapters 626 (SB 901, Dodd) and 641 Major activities include developing and maintaining (AB 2911, Friedman) of 2018 required that the Adaptation Clearinghouse, a searchable the state update its Fire Hazard Planning database of resources; regularly convening Technical Advisory in order to better a Technical Advisory Council to improve assist local governments in developing interagency coordination and develop tools effective policies, codes, standards, and and guidance; and administering a new climate programs aimed at mitigating fire hazards. resilience planning and implementation grant program (initiated through the 2021-22 budget). 14 LEGISLATIVE ANALYST’S OFFICE California Climate Change Assessments. several agencies with substantial infrastructure Beginning in 2006, the state has published a under their control—including the University series of reports that summarize current climate of California and the judicial branch—have science relevant to California, including strategies not yet completed systemwide assessments to adapt to climate change impacts. The fourth of their vulnerability to climate change. set of reports was published in 2018, and the State-Level Hazard-Specific Planning 2021-22 budget package provided $22 million Documents. The state has developed various for the next update. Chapter 136 of 2020 planning documents in response to specific (SB 1320, Stern) requires the state to conduct climate hazards facing the state, including: an updated assessment every five years. • Extreme Heat: Extreme Heat State Department Vulnerability Action Plan (Draft 2022). Assessments and Plans. A 2015 executive order required that state agencies consider • Drought: Water Resilience Portfolio climate change in all of their planning activities, (2020); Report to the Legislature on and in 2018, OPR published a guidebook to help the 2012-2016 Drought (2021). in those efforts—Planning and Investing for a Resilient California. Various response efforts • Flood: Central Valley Flood Protection are underway across state government, with Plan (2017; update planned for 2022); Delta some agencies having made more progress Adapts Vulnerability Assessment (2021). than others. For example, in 2019, The California • Wildfire: California’s Wildfire and Department of Transportation (Caltrans) assessed Forest Resilience Action Plan (2021). the state highway system for climate change impacts, identifying segments of the system • Sea-Level Rise: State of California vulnerable to impacts such as precipitation, Sea-Level Rise Guidance (2018); Critical temperature, wildfire, storm surge, and sea-level Infrastructure at Risk; Sea Level Rise rise. Using the findings from the vulnerability Planning Guidance for California’s Coastal assessments, Caltrans evaluated the at-risk Zone (2021); State Agency Sea-Level segments of the state highway system and studied Rise Action Plan for California (2022). the potential adaptation solutions. In contrast, Issues for Legislative Consideration Given the magnitude of climate change impacts How Can the State Avoid that California already is beginning to experience, Exacerbating Climate Impacts? the Legislature will confront intensifying questions Using a Climate Lens Can Help Avoid about how the state should respond. While Increasing Future Risks. The significant the companion reports in this series highlight potential for damage and danger that already issues specific to different sectors, certain major exists from climate change reinforces the themes are applicable across all policy areas. importance of ensuring that future policy decisions We summarize some of the key crosscutting do not increase such risks. To avoid unintended questions the Legislature will face in the coming consequences, the Legislature will want to use months and years in Figure 8 on the next a climate lens in considering new policies and page and discuss them in more detail below. LEGISLATIVE ANALYST’S OFFICE 15 projects that may have Figure 8 non-climate related objectives Crosscutting Climate Change Impacts: as their primary goals. Such Key Issues for Legislative Consideration an approach involves an explicit consideration of how 9 How can the state avoid exacerbating climate impacts? climate change might impact 9 the proposed activity, and What is the appropriate role of the state in preparing for climate impacts? avoiding adopting policies 9 How can the state help protect the most vulnerable Californians? or undertaking projects that 9 might inadvertently make it How should the state fund its climate change preparation and response efforts? more difficult to effectively 9 How should the state prioritize among potential climate adaptation efforts? adapt to those impacts. For 9 example, if the state were How do the costs and merits of taking action compare with the consequences to explore using new road of inaction? construction materials that Similarly, the Legislature will want to consider rely on recycled materials to ways to ensure that future state transportation meet one set of sustainability objectives, it would projects are resilient, long lasting, and a worthwhile want to ensure that such materials do not also investment of state funds. This will be particularly significantly amplify heat and thereby worsen challenging given that the time frame for planning the local impacts of increasing temperatures. and implementing transportation infrastructure Climate Change Should Inform the is quite lengthy and therefore not well suited to Location and Design of Housing and respond to unpredictable and evolving conditions. Infrastructure. Steps the Legislature could take What Is the Appropriate Role include a new look at what role state policies of the State in Preparing should play in influencing where and how new for Climate Impacts? homes and infrastructure are built to try to minimize their exposure to climate impacts. For Important to Focus on Most Effective example, the Legislature could consider requiring State-Level Actions. The magnitude and local governments to more fully incorporate extent of climate change impacts across climate change in the housing elements of their California make it unreasonable to expect that general plans, or adopting changes to statewide state government will be able to address them building codes to encourage new homes to all by itself. Rather, effectively reducing and be built with climate resilience in mind. As it responding to the anticipated adverse effects considers these questions, the Legislature will will require a wide range of actions to be taken face difficult choices about how to balance the by both private and public actors across the trade-offs of potentially limiting construction of state, including households, businesses, and new homes in risky areas against other competing local governments, as well as coordination with priorities, such as ensuring adequate housing the federal government. Within this broader is built across the state, housing affordability context of private and public adaptation actions, concerns, and preserving local control. a key question for the Legislature will be what role state programs and policies can and should play in adapting to climate change, including 16 LEGISLATIVE ANALYST’S OFFICE how they interact with local adaptation activities. • Providing Targeted Fiscal Support. Some key categories of state-level activities State funding likely will be a critical the Legislature could consider include: component of climate preparation and response activities across the state, • Adopting Guidance and Standards. including for testing new strategies, providing Setting expectations at the state level will “seed money” to spur investments from ensure important adaptation actions are other sources, addressing the state’s implemented uniformly across California. responsibilities (such as for state-owned This could include changes to state infrastructure), and filling in gaps to ensure workplace safety standards, updated building important statewide priorities are achieved. code standards, regulations establishing a maximum heat threshold for rental properties How Can the State Help Protect the (and associated cooling requirements), or Most Vulnerable Californians? clear guidelines on what temperature levels State Programs Can Explicitly Focus should shift school activities indoors. on Supporting Vulnerable Populations. • Assessing and Addressing Data Gaps. As discussed above, certain populations—such Additional information could help inform as low-income households, medically sensitive and guide adaptation actions at the state populations, and workers in outdoor industries— and local levels. The state can help identify generally are more vulnerable to the effects of what potentially helpful information currently climate change. The Legislature will want to is lacking, particularly in cases where consider how it can target state programs in state-level data collection and dissemination ways that support these groups. Such a focus could help avoid inconsistencies or could help address some of the most significant duplication of efforts across the state. adverse effects of climate change, as well as Steps could include improving the state’s reduce the inequitable distribution of impacts. ongoing monitoring of how climate change For example, to mitigate impacts on public health, currently impacts health outcomes, the state could take steps such as establishing researching the degree to which climate programs that provide free or low-cost air filters change is projected to impact future health or masks to low-income populations, ensuring outcomes, and assessing how changing warnings about extreme heat and air quality conditions are affecting workplace safety. are translated and targeted to reach medically and/or socially vulnerable populations, or • Providing Support and Coordination. strengthening Medi-Cal managed care plans’ The state is uniquely positioned to role in helping their members prepare for and help facilitate and synchronize climate navigate services during and after emergencies. response efforts at the local level and across state government. Steps could Legislature Could Target Policies and include providing technical assistance and Assistance for Particularly Vulnerable expertise, disseminating best practices, Regions, Neighborhoods, and Workers. taking advantage of economies of scale Additionally, since past government actions— to maintain and deploy key resources such as redlining—have exacerbated the when needed, and requiring interagency disproportionate climate risks that some consultation for the development and communities face, the Legislature may want to implementation of state programs. consider whether the state should take actions LEGISLATIVE ANALYST’S OFFICE 17 such as targeting financial assistance to certain • General Fund. As shown in Figure 7 on neighborhoods. The Legislature could also page 14, the 2021-22 budget package took explore opportunities to incentivize landlords advantage of the historic state budget surplus to modify their rental properties to mitigate the to dedicate over $9 billion—primarily from the effects of heat and smoke on their tenants. General Fund—over three years for various climate response and adaptation activities. The Legislature also will want to consider As the state’s largest and most flexible fund, which workers, industries, and regions will be the General Fund likely will continue to be disproportionately affected by climate change a key source to which the Legislature will and how the state might want to help address turn for climate adaptation efforts. However, those challenges. For example, given lower-wage the General Fund also supports many other workers are over-represented in outdoor-based competing and ever-emerging priorities, industries, the state may want to focus its efforts and available funding could be constrained on addressing the anticipated impacts on those when the state next encounters tight fiscal groups. The state likely will need additional times—which some economists believe data to provide a clearer sense of whether could come in the next few years. As with existing state programs, such as unemployment all its decisions, the Legislature will have insurance and workforce development to balance climate response alongside programs, are equipped to address the needs its multiple other policy and budgetary of workers impacted by climate change. priorities. In some instances, the Legislature could seek to meet existing General Fund How Should the State Fund Its requirements while also achieving some Climate Change Preparation climate adaptation goals, such as by and Response Efforts? directing Proposition 98 funding for activities Legislature Has Range of Funding Sources that increase schools’ preparedness. It Could Consider. As noted earlier, taking steps to prepare for, respond to, and recover from climate • Proposition 2 Infrastructure Funds. change impacts will generate costs for all levels In addition to general purpose General Fund of government, as well as private businesses monies, the Legislature could potentially use and residents. The recent federal Infrastructure future required Proposition 2 infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act will provide some funding for climate adaptation efforts. Under funding to California to assist with our adaptation Proposition 2 (a constitutional amendment efforts, but additional state funding likely also passed by voters in 2014), the state must will be needed. Determining how to fund the spend a certain amount on infrastructure state’s share of climate adaptation activities will in years when the state’s rainy day fund be a key decision point for the Legislature over contains at least 10 percent of General Fund the coming years. One important consideration revenues. Because the reserve is estimated in identifying the most appropriate fund source to reach that threshold in 2022-23, the state for specific activities will be whether they are likely will need to meet these infrastructure one time or ongoing in nature. Some funding spending requirements in upcoming budgets. options the Legislature could consider include: • Special Funds. The Legislature also could consider reprioritizing other funding sources— such as the Greenhouse Gas Reduction 18 LEGISLATIVE ANALYST’S OFFICE Fund (GGRF) or state transportation funds— on the State Appropriations Limit Proposal.) explicitly for climate adaptation activities and However, because many climate adaptation projects. Some of these existing revenue efforts are capital outlay projects—which are sources may become less reliable in future exempt from the SAL—the Legislature might have years, however. For example, the state’s more capacity for such activities, particularly cap-and-trade program—which generates in years where the limit is a consideration. GGRF revenue—is only authorized until How Should the State Prioritize 2030. Additionally, as vehicles become more Among Potential Climate efficient, gas tax revenues—which currently Adaptation Efforts? represent the primary source of state funds for transportation projects—may not provide Given Limited Funding, Legislature as much funding for future efforts. As Will Want to Select Activities That Most such, the Legislature may want to consider Effectively Meet Its Goals. In addition to pursuing new sources of revenue to support balancing how much funding to dedicate for expanded climate adaptation efforts in the climate adaptation against its many other statewide coming years. For example, this could include budgetary priorities, the Legislature also faces the road charges where drivers pay for road challenge of prioritizing spending among various maintenance based on the miles they drive. activities to prepare for and respond to climate impacts. Given that the costs for potential climate • General Obligation Bonds. Historically, the adaptation activities likely will far outstrip available state has depended upon general obligation state funding (even with potential new revenues), bonds to fund many infrastructure and once it identifies fund sources, the Legislature natural resources projects. Requesting voter will need to decide how to spend those dollars to approval of new bonds remains an option maximize their effectiveness. Prioritization factors for future efforts, although bonds create could include the immediacy of an expected long-term obligations for the state to pay off climate impact, degree of state ownership and both principal and additional interest costs. responsibility, number of Californians affected, Moreover, bond funding often is somewhat potential fiscal and economic implications, threat restrictive in its uses—typically focused on to public safety, or the ability—or inability—of capital outlay projects. While many climate certain communities to adapt without state adaptation efforts will consist of constructing assistance. The Legislature could also consider capital projects, some initiatives—such as prioritizing efforts in which providing seed money conducting research, operating cooling could help spur local adaptation efforts, such centers, or providing technical assistance— as for regional planning or community-based would not be as appropriate for bond funds. adaptation initiatives that are harder to implement State Appropriations Limit (SAL) without financial incentives. To better inform its Consideration. The state budgeting process prioritization decisions, the Legislature may need also is complicated by requirements related to to seek additional research and information that the constitutional SAL, which can constrain how explicitly assesses the relative cost-effectiveness much General Fund the Legislature can allocate of various climate adaptation strategies. for certain types of activities. (We discuss the limit and its effect on the state budget in our post The 2022-23 Budget: Initial Comments LEGISLATIVE ANALYST’S OFFICE 19 How Do the Costs and Merits of Consider Potential Co-Benefits of Taking Action Compare With the Climate Adaptation Activities. An additional Consequences of Inaction? consideration for the Legislature to factor into its decisions is whether some activities might yield Pre-Disaster Mitigation Is Often Less co-benefits beyond just addressing certain climate Costly Than Recovering. Climate adaptation impacts. For example, developing strategies and projects can be expensive and difficult. In many infrastructure to capture and store stormwater cases, however, efforts that help to avoid future runoff could not only help with urban flood control, damages and costs could bring significant but also could increase local water supplies longer-term economic benefits for residents, and build drought resilience. Similarly, planting regions, and the state compared to if they were trees and adding green spaces in certain urban not undertaken. For example, a national study settings could both reduce heat amplification as found that $1 of federal spending on pre-disaster well as bring lifestyle and recreational benefits for mitigation projects for infrastructure yielded local residents. Thinning forests can both help savings of $6 in disaster recovery costs. reduce the severity of wildfires and potentially Important to Weigh Up-Front Costs have water supply benefits if the projects help of Adaptation Efforts Against Potential shade and maintain snowpack on the ground Long-Term Savings. Weighing the merits of rather than allowing it to evaporate from tree undertaking certain climate adaptation activities tops. As the Legislature considers the trade-offs against associated costs could be a difficult associated with pursuing certain climate calculation for the Legislature in many cases, adaptation activities, it will want to be sure not given that near-term costs could be significant to overlook potential secondary advantages. and the expected benefits can be uncertain Some Important Benefits May Be Hard and may not materialize for many years. Despite to Quantify. In some cases, the benefits of these complications, however, conducting mitigating climate impacts could be hard to longer-term cost-benefit analyses is essential, quantify in a traditional cost-benefit analysis. given the magnitude of the potential out-year These include the value to Californians associated costs associated with climate impacts. Moreover, with avoiding the extinction of native species, in assessing the merits of climate adaptation minimizing learning loss for students from school proposals, the Legislature will want to ensure it disruptions, protecting people from heat-related also considers the costs of inaction to climate illnesses or deaths, or preserving public access change by comparing up-front costs against the to beaches that face the risk of erosion from potential savings that adaptation projects could sea-level rise. Despite inherent complications achieve over time. For instance, such an analysis in assessing the indefinite costs associated could compare the potential cumulative costs of with some potential climate impacts, such repeatedly rebuilding an erosion-prone stretch considerations will be important for the Legislature of highway to those associated with relocating to take into account as it determines its priorities. it to a more stable location. Similarly, over time, the costs of implementing new workplace safety standards for employers could be significantly less costly than potential losses in labor productivity and worker health benefits if current practices continue under increasingly hazardous conditions. 20 LEGISLATIVE ANALYST’S OFFICE Conclusion Addressing the widespread impacts of climate including the need for: coordination across and change represents a significant challenge for the within different levels of government, additional state, and one that will increasingly occupy the information to help guide actions, prioritization Legislature’s agenda and require substantial fiscal of efforts, state-level technical and financial commitments in the coming years. Effectively assistance, and a focus on the most vulnerable responding will necessitate that actions be taken Californians. However, certain impacts will vary across state government. Therefore, limiting by sector and require more targeted actions. discussion, emphasis, and activities to just the A critical step for the Legislature to help inform departments and legislative committees that focus and focus its responses is to understand how on environmental issues will not be sufficient to a changing climate already is impacting and address the extensive impacts occurring across will continue to affect different sectors such different policy areas. As discussed in this as those discussed in this series of reports. report, some issues cut across various sectors, LEGISLATIVE ANALYST’S OFFICE 21 22 LEGISLATIVE ANALYST’S OFFICE LEGISLATIVE ANALYST’S OFFICE 23 LAO Publications This report was prepared by Rachel Ehlers and reviewed by Anthony Simbol. The Legislative Analyst’s Office (LAO) is a nonpartisan office that provides fiscal and policy information and advice to the Legislature. To request publications call (916) 445-4656. This report and others, as well as an e-mail subscription service, are available on the LAO’s website at www.lao.ca.gov. The LAO is located at 925 L Street, Suite 1000, Sacramento, California 95814. 24 LEGISLATIVE ANALYST’S OFFICE