Climate Change Impacts Across California - Transportation

Climate Change Impacts Across California TRANSPORTATION Transportation Other Reports Summary in This Series Climate change will have a number of serious impacts on California, including public health risks, damage to property and infrastructure, life-threatening events, and impaired natural resources. This report focuses on how a changing climate CROSSCUTTING ISSUES is affecting transportation infrastructure and key issues the Legislature faces in responding to those impacts. This is one of a series of reports summarizing how climate change will impact different sectors across California. Climate change will impact transportation infrastructure in California in a number HEALTH of ways. These include sea-level rise undermining coastal railways and bridges, intense storms causing mudslides and flooding of highways, and heatwaves leading to buckling and rutting of roads. Mainly, we find that some existing transportation infrastructure will need to be modified or relocated to remain useable, and that HOUSING planning, construction, and maintenance processes will increasingly need to account for the effects of climate change to maintain the infrastructure’s longevity. To respond to these impacts, the Legislature may want to consider whether it needs to modify K-12 EDUCATION how it funds, prioritizes, and plans transportation infrastructure, as well as what the state’s role should be in supporting local development and implementation of climate adaptation projects. For example, given that the potential costs for climate adaptation far outstrip available funding, the Legislature likely will want to require WORKERS & transportation planning agencies to integrate climate resiliency into how they prioritize EMPLOYERS and select projects. Prioritization factors could include the immediacy of expected climate impacts, state ownership and responsibility, number of road users affected, public safety implications, and potential effects on surrounding land uses. The Legislature also may want to require transportation planning agencies to prioritize funding for communities that face the greatest risk and have less capacity to address climate threats without state assistance. Additionally, the Legislature will want to consider which funding streams will be appropriate and sustainable to support climate-resilient transportation infrastructure. Climate adaptation projects can be expensive and difficult. However, in many cases, efforts that help to avoid future damages and costs could bring significant longer-term economic benefits for certain regions and the state compared to if they were not undertaken. Any new state initiatives should build on existing state efforts and funding, which include initial department- and agency-led work that is underway to assess and plan for climate change impacts. Gabriel Petek Ap1ril 2022 LEGISLATIVE ANALYST’S OFFICE Introduction This report contains three primary sections: and programs to reduce emissions of greenhouse (1) the major ways climate hazards impact gases (GHGs), such as by encouraging the transportation infrastructure, (2) significant existing adoption of zero-emission vehicles. state-level efforts underway to address climate California Faces Five Major Climate change impacts in the transportation sector, and Hazards. As discussed in depth in our (3) key questions for the Legislature to consider in companion report, Climate Change Impacts response to these impacts. Given the complexity Across California: Crosscutting Issues, five major of the issues, this report does not contain explicit climate change hazards confront California. recommendations or a specific path forward; Specifically, increasing temperatures, a changing rather, it is intended as a framing document to hydrology, and rising sea levels are leading to: help the Legislature adopt a “climate lens” across its decisions in the transportation policy area. • Higher average temperatures and periods of extreme heat. Because some degree of climate change already is occurring and more changes are • More frequent and intense droughts. inevitable, this document focuses primarily on how the Legislature can think about responding • Increased risk of floods. to resulting impacts. Of note, the state is also • More severe wildfires. engaged in numerous efforts to limit the degree to which climate change occurs by enacting policies • Coastal flooding and erosion. Major Climate Change Impacts on Transportation In this section, we discuss the primary ways bridges, and ports to remain accessible, they will climate change impacts affect the transportation need to be modified or relocated. For example, to sector. As shown in Figure 1, not only will some accommodate increased flooding, some roads existing transportation infrastructure need to be need to be constructed with more drainage and modified or relocated due to the effects of climate certain railroads need to be diverted to higher change, but transportation planning, construction, ground. Implementing such changes will be costly. and maintenance also will need to increasingly New Infrastructure Will Have Shorter account for the impacts of climate change. Lifespans Unless Transportation Planning Some Existing Transportation Infrastructure Increasingly Accounts for Effects of Climate Requires Modification or Relocation to Remain Change. Transportation infrastructure is typically Usable. As the climate changes, statewide planned to withstand once-in-a-century weather transportation systems are already beginning to events. As the climate changes and extreme experience a range of impacts, such as sea-level weather events become more common, maintaining rise undermining coastal railways and bridges, transportation infrastructure’s expected usable intense storms causing mudslides and flooding of lifespan will quickly become infeasible unless it highways, and heatwaves leading to buckling and is developed to be resilient to more frequent and rutting of roads. For the impacted roads, railways, intense stressors. For example, this will involve 2 LEGISLATIVE ANALYST’S OFFICE adopting higher design standards to ensure the longevity and safety Figure 1 of transportation infrastructure given more prevalent flood risks. Key Ways in Which Transportation Infrastructure These higher standards likely Is Impacted by Climate Change will require using more complex forecasting data, based not solely on historical flooding patterns, but also informed by changing and anticipated conditions. Existing Materials Likely Will Not Meet the Demands of Changing Conditions. Some existing transportation infrastructure To adequately respond to extreme requires modification or relocation to remain usable. weather and climate-driven events such as heatwaves, flooding, and wildfires, transportation infrastructure needs to be stronger and more resilient to new stressors. Depending on the region, construction materials should change in response to the climate change threat that is most prevalent. For example, 2021 research suggests that a projected 2051 increase in average temperature New infrastructure will have shorter lifespans of 4 degrees Fahrenheit over unless transportation planning increasingly accounts the next several decades will for effects of climate change. decrease the life expectancy of asphalt by 3 to 7 years for roads with a service life of about 20 years. As such, in areas where prolonged and extreme heatwaves are becoming more common, shifting to paving material that better reflects the sun may prolong the longevity of the roadways. In other regions where flooding Existing materials likely will not meet the demands of and mudslides are becoming more changing conditions, and the maintenance needs of frequent, roads likely will require transportation infrastructure are changing. more permeable materials. LEGISLATIVE ANALYST’S OFFICE 3 Maintenance Needs of Transportation temperatures are reducing the need for snow Infrastructure Are Changing. To ensure the removal work and extending the months of the usable lifespan of transportation infrastructure year workers can complete work on various is maximized, regular maintenance is essential. transportation infrastructure. Alternatively, extreme However, as the climate changes, the maintenance and prolonged heatwaves are beginning to needs of different assets as well as the ability damage roads through buckling and warping of to work on transportation infrastructure are pavement—requiring increased maintenance—as beginning to vary. For example, in areas that well as limiting the time maintenance workers historically received a lot of snow, increasing can safely undertake projects during the day. Significant Existing Efforts and Funding The state has several existing efforts dedicated Caltrans Has Engaged in Climate Change to addressing the climate change impacts on Vulnerability and Adaptation Planning transportation infrastructure, including funding and Efforts. In 2019, Caltrans assessed the state research initiatives as well as department- and highway system for climate change impacts, agency-led projects to assess climate-related identifying segments of the system vulnerable vulnerabilities and plan for more climate-resilient to impacts such as precipitation, temperature, transportation infrastructure. We highlight wildfire, storm surge, and sea-level rise. Using the some of the most significant efforts below. findings from these vulnerability assessments, Caltrans evaluated the at-risk segments of the Chapter 5 of 2017 (SB 1, Beall) Provided state highway system and studied the potential $20 Million for Climate Adaptation Planning adaptation solutions. In addition to these Grants. Over three years, the California district-specific efforts, Caltrans is incorporating Department of Transportation (Caltrans) has climate resiliency into statewide action as well. awarded 61 grants on a competitive basis for For example, it is currently updating its statewide local and regional entities to prepare for and guidance on incorporating sea-level rise into its reduce damage from climate change impacts project development and delivery processes. on transportation infrastructure. Funded projects Although the department has begun to engage include vulnerability and needs assessments in vulnerability assessment and adaptation as well as regional climate adaptation plans. planning, its efforts to ensure climate change is incorporated into project implementation Chapter 118 of 2016 (AB 2800, Quirk) processes are in the beginning stages. Established the Climate-Safe Infrastructure Working Group. The Legislature directed the California State Transportation California Natural Resources Agency to convene Agency (CalSTA) Developed Climate Action a working group consisting of engineers, Plan for Transportation Infrastructure. scientists, and architects to examine how to In response to Executive Order N-19-19, which incorporate climate change impact data into state called for CalSTA to leverage discretionary state infrastructure planning, design, construction, transportation funds to reduce GHG emissions operations, and maintenance. The working in the transportation sector and adapt to climate group published its findings in 2018. change, CalSTA developed ten guiding principles to leverage state transportation dollars to meet 4 LEGISLATIVE ANALYST’S OFFICE the state’s climate, health, and social equity goals. Infrastructure. However, additional work is In July 2021, CalSTA adopted the final version needed to ensure the agency implements these of the Climate Action Plan for Transportation principles in allocating state transportation funds. Key Issues for Legislative Consideration Given the impacts of climate change on help to avoid future damages and costs could transportation, the state has an important role bring significant longer-term economic benefits in ensuring the state’s highway system and for certain regions and the state compared to if bridges—as well as local streets and roads— they were not undertaken. For example, a national remain functional by incorporating necessary study found that $1 of federal spending on changes in planning, construction, and pre-disaster mitigation projects for infrastructure maintenance processes. Below, we provide yielded savings of $6 in disaster recovery costs. several key questions for the Legislature to In assessing the merits of climate adaptation consider, including issues regarding funding, proposals, the Legislature will want to ensure prioritization, and planning for the adaptation of that transportation planning agencies also transportation infrastructure, as well as the state’s consider the costs of inaction to climate change— role in local development and implementation specifically, comparing up-front costs against of such climate adaptation projects. We also the potential savings that adaptation projects summarize these issues in Figure 2. could achieve over time. For instance, such an analysis should compare the potential cumulative How Do the Merits of Preparing for costs of repeatedly rebuilding an erosion-prone Changing Conditions Compare With the stretch of highway to those associated with Consequences of Failing to Prepare? relocating it to a more stable location. Climate adaptation projects can be expensive and difficult. However, in many cases, efforts that Figure 2 Climate Change Impacts on Transportation: Key Issues for Legislative Consideration 9 How do the merits of preparing for changing conditions compare with the consequences of failing to prepare? 9 How can the state avoid working at cross purposes with climate resiliency? 9 How can the state incorporate climate change impacts into transportation infrastructure processes? 9 How can the state support local development of climate-resilient transportation infrastructure? 9 How should the state prioritize adaptation funding and projects? 9 Which funding streams will be appropriate and sustainable to support climate-resilient transportation infrastructure? 9 How can the transportation sector reduce greenhouse gas emissions and thereby potentially lessen the extent of climate change impacts? LEGISLATIVE ANALYST’S OFFICE 5 How Can the State Avoid Working at How Can the State Support Local Cross-Purposes With Climate Resiliency? Development of Climate Resilient The state will want to avoid adopting policies or Transportation Infrastructure? In addition undertaking projects that might inadvertently to the climate adaptation of the state highway make it more difficult to effectively adapt to the system, local and regional entities—such as impacts of climate change. For example, if the transit agencies, cities and counties, regional state were to explore using new road construction planning organizations, and port authorities—will materials that rely on recycled materials to meet need to assess, plan, and implement strategies one set of sustainability objectives, it would want to make their transportation infrastructure more to ensure such materials do not also significantly climate resilient. Policy levers the Legislature amplify heat and worsen the impacts of increasing can consider include financial incentives for temperatures. To avoid such unintended and technical assistance of adaptation planning consequences, the Legislature will want to use efforts, directing safety and design standards to a climate lens in considering new policies and incorporate climate change impacts, removing projects along with other potential policy goals. administrative barriers to implementing climate adaptation projects, and directing state How Can the State Incorporate Climate agencies to facilitate collaboration with local and Change Impacts Into Transportation regional entities on developing climate resilient Infrastructure Processes? Caltrans should transportation infrastructure projects. The not only implement the adaptation solutions Legislature can consider additional ways to ensure identified in its priorities reports (discussed all local and regional entities are making progress above), but also continuously incorporate towards climate adaptation, such as through updated vulnerability assessments into future setting goals and accountability measures. planning processes. Given that the time frame for developing transportation infrastructure is quite How Should the State Prioritize Adaptation lengthy, how can the Legislature ensure up-to-date Funding and Projects? Given that the potential information on climate change impacts will be costs for climate adaptation far outstrip available considered throughout the transportation planning, funding, the Legislature likely will want to require construction, and maintenance processes transportation planning agencies to integrate at Caltrans and the California Transportation climate resiliency into how they prioritize and Commission? How can the Legislature ensure select projects. Prioritization factors could include that planning agencies’ intentions to incorporate the immediacy of expected climate impact, the effects of climate change into their state ownership and responsibility, number of processes manifest into effective action and road users affected, public safety implications, implementation? How can the Legislature ensure and potential effects on surrounding land uses. that state transportation projects will be resilient, In addition, the impacts of climate change will long-lasting, and a worthwhile investment of state not be uniform across communities in California, funds? Should the Legislature play a greater and not all communities will be equally prepared role in establishing climate resilience goals and and resourced to implement climate adaptation overseeing their implementation into transportation projects. As such, the Legislature may want infrastructure processes? to require transportation planning agencies to prioritize funding for communities that face the greatest risk and have less capacity to address climate threats without state assistance. 6 LEGISLATIVE ANALYST’S OFFICE Which Funding Streams Will Be projects. Additionally, the Legislature may want Appropriate and Sustainable to Support to consider developing new sources of funding, Climate-Resilient Transportation such as road charges where drivers pay for Infrastructure? The costs associated with road maintenance based on the miles they drive adapting the state transportation system to (as explored by a pilot study established via withstand the impacts of climate change likely Chapter 835 of 2014 [SB 1077, DeSaulnier]). will be greater than current expenditure levels How Can the Transportation Sector for developing and maintaining transportation Reduce GHG Emissions and Thereby infrastructure. Furthermore, as vehicles become Potentially Lessen the Extent of Climate more efficient, gas tax revenues—which currently Change Impacts? As the largest contributor to represent the primary source of state funds for California’s GHG emissions, the transportation transportation projects—may not provide as sector plays a significant role in the state’s climate much funding for future efforts. Depending on change mitigation efforts. To help minimize climate the project, alternative funding sources such impacts, the Legislature will want to continue to as the General Fund, federal funds, or other explore how it can encourage the development special funds could also be options to support of transportation infrastructure that promotes climate resilience. For example, given that the more efficient transit modes and reduces overall state is receiving a significant influx of one-time GHG emissions. Additionally, as it considers federal funds for transportation infrastructure, various transportation proposals, the Legislature the Legislature could consider dedicating some will want to be mindful of the degree to which they of these funds specifically for climate adaptation might increase or decrease GHG emissions. Conclusion Climate change will have increasingly The consequences of inaction will be severe severe impacts on transportation infrastructure and worsen over time, as the hazards of climate due to extreme heat, flooding, wildfires, and change become increasingly extreme. To ensure sea-level rise. Adequately addressing these state and local transportation infrastructure impacts will be challenging, but the state can continues to be functional and safe despite take actionable steps now to prepare, such as the growing threats posed by climate change, by better incorporating the impacts of climate building upon and accelerating existing change into its transportation funding, planning, climate adaptation efforts will be critical. construction, and maintenance processes. LEGISLATIVE ANALYST’S OFFICE 7 LAO Publications This report was prepared by Eunice Roh and Rachel Ehlers, and reviewed by Anthony Simbol. The Legislative Analyst’s Office (LAO) is a nonpartisan office that provides fiscal and policy information and advice to the Legislature. To request publications call (916) 445-4656. This report and others, as well as an e-mail subscription service, are available on the LAO’s website at www.lao.ca.gov. The LAO is located at 925 L Street, Suite 1000, Sacramento, California 95814. 8 LEGISLATIVE ANALYST’S OFFICE