The 2022-23 Budget: Update on K-12 Student Attendance

The 2022-23 Budget: Update on K-12 Student Attendance MAY 2022 Summary. In early March, the California By contrast, charter schools and COEs are Department of Education (CDE) published the first funded based on current-year attendance only. report of 2021-22 attendance data. Below, we The emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic in the provide background on the calculation of school spring of 2020 resulted in the closure of virtually attendance, describe findings from the updated all schools in the state. For most students, remote data, and discuss a few key issues to provide greater learning replaced classroom instruction for a large context for the findings. portion of the 2020-21 school year. In response to these changes, the state temporarily modified its Background approach to funding attendance. For 2019-20, the School Districts Report Attendance Data state provided that attendance levels would depend Three Times Per Year. California requires school only on ADA through February 2020. For 2020-21, districts to track the average daily attendance the state suspended the collection of attendance (ADA) of their students—the average number of data and credited districts and charter schools with students in class each day throughout the school their 2019-20 attendance levels. (Growing school year. School districts report their ADA to the state districts and classroom-based charter schools three times per year. The first time (known as “P-1”) could receive credit for additional students under covers attendance data from the beginning of the certain conditions.) For 2021-22, the state returned school year through December. CDE certifies this to its previous policy—crediting school districts with data in February. The second time (known as “P-2”) the greater of their attendance in 2021-22 (current runs from the beginning of the school year through year) or 2020-21 (prior year). Charter schools will April 15 and is certified in June. The third time (known be funded based on 2021-22 attendance levels only as “Annual”) covers the entire school year and is (consistent with the previous policy). certified in February of the following school year. Governor’s Budget Proposes Change to Attendance Affects Most State Funding for Attendance Calculations. In his January budget, Schools. The department uses attendance data to the Governor proposed an additional attendance allocate state funding for various programs, including adjustment for school districts with declining the Local Control Funding Formula (LCFF) and the attendance, beginning in 2022-23. Under this state’s special education categorical program. proposal, districts would be credited with their The role of the P-1 report is to provide an interim ADA over the three prior years if it exceeds their estimate of attendance until better data become current- and prior-year attendance. (For 2022-23, available. For most programs, the state finalizes attendance would be based on the average of funding based on the P-2 attendance data. For a 2019-20, 2020-21, and 2021-22.) The Governor few programs—generally those operated by county did not propose any specific changes for offices of education (COEs)—the state waits to charter schools, but indicates the administration finalize funding until it receives annual data. will explore options for extending a declining State Temporarily Modified Attendance attendance adjustment to charter schools in the Policies to Address the Pandemic. For the future. As we discussed in our post, The 2022-23 purpose of determining LCFF allotments, the Budget: Local Control Funding Formula, we state credits school districts with their ADA in recommend the Legislature adopt the proposed the current or prior year, whichever is higher. changes to LCFF. 2022-23 Budget Series 1 Findings From Recent Data day enrollment data for 2021-22 shows the state has experienced a 4.2 percent decline (about Attendance Is Tracking Significantly Lower 254,300 students) since 2019-20—roughly half of Than Budget Projections. The Governor’s the rate of decline for attendance. January budget assumed a 0.4 percent decline in statewide attendance from 2019-20 to 2020-21 Remaining Attendance Decline Attributable and a 2.7 percent decline in 2021-22—for a to Changes in Attendance Rates During the two-year decline of 3.1 percent. The recent data Pandemic. The remaining ADA decline is likely released by CDE shows statewide attendance attributable to higher rates of absence during for school districts and charter schools is down the first few months of the 2021-22 school year. 8.1 percent (about 473,000 students) from 2019-20 To measure rates of attendance using statewide to 2021-22—roughly 5 percentage points lower data, we use the ratio between ADA and census than anticipated. day enrollment. From 2013-14 through 2019-20, the statewide ADA-to-enrollment ratio was an Overall Attendance Declined for School average of 95.2 percent and was stable over Districts and Charter Schools. From 2019-20 the period. Preliminary 2021-22 data show an to 2021-22, school district ADA declined by ADA-to-enrollment ratio of 91.4 percent. Lower about 468,600 students (9 percent), while attendance rates could be explained by a variety charter school ADA declined by roughly of factors, but is likely all or predominately due to 8,800 students (1.4 percent). As Figure 1 shows, the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on students although charter school ADA is down overall, and families. Some students may have been absent nonclassroom-based attendance grew by about after testing positive for COVID-19 or quarantining 8,000 students (4.1 percent) during the pandemic. after exposure. In some cases, parents may have (Nonclassroom-based ADA includes students using kept kids home from school as a precaution, even if individualized, self-paced student learning plans.) not required. This increase is likely due to some families choosing to enroll students in nontraditional programs Early Grades Experienced Largest while most school districts were providing Attendance and Enrollment Declines. As instruction remotely. Figure 2 shows, the largest attendance declines during the pandemic were in the kindergarten About Half of ADA Decline Likely Attributable through grade 3 (K-3) grade span. (This category to Enrollment Declines. One important factor also includes Transitional Kindergarten [TK].) that explains the large drop in attendance is K-3 ADA declined by 12.5 percent (roughly the decrease in student enrollment during the 224,000 ADA) from 2019-20 to 2021-22. This pandemic. The state tracks enrollment annually on represents nearly half of the ADA decline across the first Wednesday in October (known as census all grades, despite K-3 students representing day), to establish a baseline count of the number only about 30 percent of the overall student of students enrolled in each school. The census population. As Figure 2 shows, more than half of the decline is related to lower enrollment. The large Figure 1 enrollment decline is likely due in part to some Attendance Changes for parents choosing to delay enrollment of their School Districts and Charter Schools children in kindergarten or TK during the pandemic. Conversely, the 9-12 grade span saw the lowest Change From 2019-20 to 2021-22 ADA declines of any grade span (3.1 percent). Difference Percent A major contributing factor may be 12th graders enrolling for a fifth year, as 12th grade enrollment School district -468,600 -9.0% increased by roughly 7,600 students during Classroom-based charter -16,800 -3.8 the pandemic. Nonclassroom-based charter 8,000 4.1 Charter School Total (-8,800) (-1.4%) Statewide Total -477,400 -8.2% 2022-23 Budget Series 2 Statewide Attendance and Enrollment Declined at Higher Figure 2 Rates During Pandemic. After a few decades of significant growth, Largest ADA Loss Is in Grades K-3 the state has faced declining Percent Change From 2019-20 to 2021-22, by Grade Span enrollment and attendance over the last decade. These declines are mainly due to declines in the -3.9% -4.2% All Grades school-age population caused by historically low birth rates. Due to enrollment declines Grades -3.1% -0.02% As Figure 3 shows, year-to-year Due to lower attendance rates 9-12 declines in statewide enrollment and attendance were relatively Grades -3.5% -6.7% 7-8 modest prior to the pandemic. The enrollment declines in 2020-21 Grades -4.2% -3.8% and 2021-22—2.6 percent and 4-6 2.4 percent, respectively—are the largest since 1978-79 (2.8 percent). Grades -5.1% -7.4% K-3a Similarly, the ADA decline in 2021-22 would be the largest decline in the a Includes Transitional Kindergarten. last few decades if final numbers are ADA = average daily attendance. similar to the preliminary estimates. (The state did not collect ADA data in 2020-21.) The declines in enrollment Figure 3 during the pandemic are steeper than changes in the school-age Enrollment and Attendance Declines population, which suggests that the Have Been Steeper During the Pandemic pandemic has affected enrollment in (In Millions) 2020-21 and 2021-22. ADA Declines Differ by County. 6.2 As Figure 4 on the next page 6.0 shows, 55 of the 58 counties in 5.8 California have experienced ADA 5.6 5.4 declines during the pandemic. Of 5.2 these 55 counties, 36 experienced 5.0 two-year declines between 5 percent 4.8 and 10 percent. The counties that 4.6 have experienced the largest ADA 4.4 declines during the pandemic 4.2 are small rural counties located 4.0 in the Sierras and Northern 3.8 Enrollment ADA 3.6 California. Among more populous 3.4 counties, San Francisco and Los 3.2 Angeles Counties have had the 3.0 largest declines (11.4 percent and 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21a 2021-22b 11.1 percent, respectively). a The state did not collect attendance data in 2020-21. b 2021-22 ADA represents preliminary data through December. ADA = average daily attendance. 2022-23 Budget Series 3 Figure 4 Attendance Changes by County Percent Change in Average Daily Attendance From 2019-20 to 2021-22 0%-3% Growth 0%-5% Decline 5%-10% Decline 10%-15% Decline 15% or More Decline 2022-23 Budget Series 4 Issues for Consideration Over the Long Term, State Likely to See Continued Declines in Enrollment. As the In this section, we discuss a few key issues effects of the pandemic on schools continue to to provide greater context for the findings diminish, the state could see short-term increases described above. in enrollment in 2022-23. However, the state’s Most Recent Attendance Data Does Not school-age population will likely continue to decline, Include Omicron Wave. The preliminary P-1 data as birth rates are projected to remain relatively low. we discussed in this post includes attendance Over the long term, this will likely result in continued data through December, prior to the significant declines in K-12 student enrollment. surge in COVID-19 cases from the Omicron variant. Information from specific school districts suggests Conclusion that attendance rates in January and February were The preliminary 2021-22 attendance data show significantly lower than in the fall due to COVID-19 much steeper declines than anticipated when the cases and associated quarantines. Attendance 2021-22 budget was enacted. Lower attendance rates are likely to have rebounded in subsequent will likely result in lower baseline 2022-23 LCFF months, however, as the number of new COVID-19 costs than assumed in the Governor’s January cases in the state returned to pre-Omicron levels by budget. At this point, the Legislature has late February. insufficient information to determine the long-term Attendance Decline Will Have Different trends in attendance. Some factors, such as Impact on Districts and Charters. Assuming that absences related to COVID-19, will become attendance does not return to pre-pandemic levels less significant over the next few years as the in 2022-23, districts with declining attendance will effects of the pandemic continue to subside. begin to see declines in their LCFF apportionments The implications of recent enrollment declines in 2022-23, as the attendance hold-harmless is set are more difficult to determine. Given enrollment to expire at the end of 2021-22. If the Governor’s declines are particularly large in the early grades, three-year rolling average proposal is adopted, they could be primarily driven by the pandemic. districts would see a smaller decline in funding than Private school enrollment data also do not suggest under current law. In contrast, charter schools are large shifts in enrollment from public to private experiencing declines in their LCFF apportionment schools. These enrollment declines, however, in the current year, but could see funding rebound if have now occurred for two consecutive years and their attendance improves in 2022-23. may suggest a steeper decline in enrollment than Enrollment Declines Not Explained by Shift to previously anticipated. The Legislature will want to Private Schools. Preliminary CDE data on 2021-22 continue to monitor attendance data as it decides private school enrollment shows that enrollment at how to best allocate school funding and consider private schools increased from 527,500 in 2019-20 whether changes should be made in response to to 540,700 in 2021-22—a 2.4 percent increase these trends. (13,200 students). Although this marks a significant uptick in private school enrollment relative to historical trends, the overall growth in private school enrollment during the pandemic is relatively small compared with the decline in public schools (254,300 students). 2022-23 Budget Series 5 2022-23 Budget Series 6 2022-23 Budget Series 7 LAO PUBLICATIONS This post was prepared by Michael Alferes, and reviewed by Edgar Cabral and Anthony Simbol. The Legislative Analyst’s Office (LAO) is a nonpartisan office that provides fiscal and policy information and advice to the Legislature. 2022-23 Budget Series 8