Trends in Higher Education: Student Access

analysis full gutter Trends in Higher Education Student Access Legislative Analyst’s Office 2024 1 analysis full gutter 2 analysis full gutter Introduction This brief is the first of a new six-part analytical series focused on higher education trends. Each part of the series hones in on a major area of higher education, beginning with student access, followed by college affordability, student outcomes, finance, faculty and staff, and facilities. The series has two main objectives. The first is to help legislators, staff, and the general public track many of the key changes that higher education has undergone over the past few decades. The second is to help legislators and staff leverage their better understanding of the past to aid them in better navigating the future. To this end, each brief is punctuated by key issues for legislators to consider as they move forward in making higher education policy and budget decisions. The six briefs within the series each contains a set of infographics highlighting trends over time. In compiling the series, we draw primarily from data sources at the federal, state, and segment levels, as these sources tend to contain the most relevant, accurate, and complete data available on higher education policy and fiscal issues. We tend to provide data for the past one to three decades. We select the exact time period for each chart by considering the availability of the particular data at issue, comparability of the reported data over time, and the most interesting trends emanating from the data. Because the focus is on trends over time, we adjust funding and spending data for inflation, such that the infographics show changes in real terms. Throughout the series, we give greatest attention to trends in California, but we also cover national trends when helpful for broader context. Whereas this 2024 series focuses on higher education changes over time, California’s Education System: A 2019 Guide explains the inner workings of the state’s education system. Much of that guide remains relevant today and can assist those who are looking for more basic information on education policy and fiscal matters in California. 3 analysis full gutter Student Access California’s Higher Education System California's Public Higher Education Sector Was Built Over Many Decades Public Campuses in Operation California’s public higher education sector consists of the California Community Colleges (CCC), California State University (CSU), and University of California (UC). The number of public colleges and universities nearly doubled between 1950 and 1975—reflecting demographic and policy changes. Growth in the public sector has continued since 1975 but at a slower pace. Number of Public Campuses in Operation 1900 1950 1975 2000 2023 CCC — 51 101 108 116 CSU 4 12 20 22 23 UC 2 4 9 9 10 Totals 6 67 130 139 149 2023 2000 1975 1950 Number of Private Colleges and Universities in California Is Down Number of California Private Institutions Participating in Federal Financial Aid Programs 600 Private for-profit 500 400 Since 2013-14, the number of private for-profit institutions in California participating in federal financial aid programs 300 has declined by 23 percent. The number of private nonprofit institutions, however, has remained relatively steady. 200 Private nonprofit 100 2010-11 2012-13 2014-15 2016-17 2018-19 2020-21 2022-23 4 analysis full gutter Student Access Enrollment Drivers College-Age Population Has Peaked and Started to Decline Cumulative Percent Change in Age 18-24 Population Since 2006 14% 12 California 10 8 Since peak levels, the 6 college-age population has shrunk by nearly 1.3 million 4 U.S. (4 percent) nationally 2 and nearly 175,000 (4.1 percent) in California. 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 College Participation Rate Has Dipped Since 2017-18 Percent of California Public High School Completers Enrolling in Postsecondary Education by Segment Any In-State Out of College CCC CSU UC Private State 2014-15 64% 37% 12% 6% 3% 7% 2015-16 67 38 12 8 3 7 2016-17 65 36 12 7 3 6 2017-18 68 37 13 7 3 7 2018-19 65 36 12 7 3 7 2019-20 63 34 12 8 3 7 2020-21 62 32 12 8 3 8 Note: Chart reflects the percent of public high school completers who enrolled at each segment within 12 months of completing high school. High School Graduates Are Projected to Begin Declining After 2023-24 California Public High School Graduates 500,000 450,000 Projected 400,000 The number of public Actual high school graduates 350,000 in California is expected to peak in 2023-24, 300,000 followed by several years of declines. By 2031-32, 250,000 high school graduates are projected to be 14 percent 200,000 below the peak level. 1999-00 2003-04 2007-08 2011-12 2015-16 2019-20 2023-24 2027-28 2031-32 5 analysis full gutter Student Access Enrollment Levels Total Enrollment Also Has Peaked and Started to Decline Cumulative Percent Change Since 2000 in Fall Headcount at Postsecondary Institutions 40% 35 U.S. 30 25 20 15 10 California 5 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Since peak levels, total higher education enrollment has shrunk by about 2.5 million students (12 percent) nationally and 240,000 students (8.4 percent) in California. Community College Enrollment Is More Tightly Linked to Economic Cycles Fall Headcount Recession Recession Recession 1,800,000 1,600,000 CCC 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 CSU 400,000 200,000 UC 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Community college enrollment tends to be countercyclical—increasing during recessions, as job markets weaken. The COVID-19 recession was an exception, as it was short-lived and followed by a very strong job market and declines in community college enrollment. Universities tend to be less affected by economic cycles. 6 analysis full gutter Student Access Undergraduate Enrollment Undergraduate Enrollment Is Shifting Toward Four-Year Universities Undergraduate Fall Headcount by Segment 3,000,000 2,500,000 Private for-profit Private nonprofit 2,000,000 UC CSU 1,500,000 1,000,000 CCC 500,000 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 As community college enrollment has declined, overall enrollment at four-year universities has grown. Since 2010, CSU has grown from 14 percent to 19 percent of undergraduate enrollment, UC has grown from 7 percent to 10 percent, and the private nonprofit sector has grown from 6 percent to 9 percent. Every UC Campus Has Grown Over Past 20 Years Cumulative Percent Growth in Undergraduate Fall Headcount, 2000 Through 2021 San Diego Riverside Irvine UC System Santa Cruz Davis Berkeley Santa Barbara Los Angeles 20 40 60 80 100% Excludes UC Merced, which opened in 2005, and UC San Francisco, which enrolls only graduate students. 7 analysis full gutter Student Access Undergraduate Enrollment Nearly Every CSU Campus Also Has Grown Over Past 20 Years Cumulative Percent Growth in Undergraduate Fall Headcount, 2000 Through 2021 San Marcos Monterey Bay Dominguez Hills Bakersfield Los Angeles Stanislaus Pomona San Bernardino Northridge Fullerton CSU System Sacramento Fresno San Jose Long Beach Maritime San Luis Obispo East Bay San Diego San Francisco Sonoma Chico Humboldt -50% 50 100 150 200% Excludes CSU Channel Islands, which opened in 2002. Enrollment Has Declined in Most CCC Regions Cumulative Percent Growth in Fall Headcount, 2000 Through 2021 Inland Empire/Desert Central Valley/Mother Lode South Central Coast North/Far North CCC System San Diego/Imperial Los Angeles Orange County Bay Area -30% -20 -10 10 20 30% Key Issue As the high school graduate and college-age populations decline, the segments are likely to begin competing more for students. The Legislature will continue to face key decisions about how much enrollment to fund at each of the public segments. Such decisions could have important implications for the size of each segment in the years to come. 8 analysis full gutter Student Access Undergraduate Demographics Latinos Comprise a Growing Share of California's Undergraduates Undergraduate Fall Headcount Across All Segments by Race/Ethnicity 3,000,000 2,500,000 From 2010 to 2021, the Other share of undergraduates Black who are Latino increased 2,000,000 notably (from 31 percent Asian/Pacific Islander to 42 percent). The share of undergraduates in 1,500,000 other racial/ethnic groups White declined, with the largest 1,000,000 decline among white students (from 33 percent to 23 percent). 500,000 Latino 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 "Other" consists of American Indian students, multiracial students, international students, and students of unknown race/ethnicity. Latino and Black Students Continue to Access UC at Lower Rates Racial/Ethnic Distribution of Californians Age 18-24 and UC Resident Undergraduates 2000 2010 2021 CA UC CA UC CA UC Latino 42% 14% 44% 20% 50% 31% White 36 42 33 33 26 23 Asian/Pacific Islander 13 39 14 42 15 40 Black 7 4 8 4 8 5 American Indian 1 1 1 1 1 1 Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Note: Figure excludes individuals of unknown race/ethnicity or another race not listed in the figure. In 1996, California voters approved Proposition 209 banning the consideration of race, sex, color, ethnicity, or national origin in public programs, including admission to public universities. Since then, UC (the state's most selective public segment) has adopted certain other practices to promote a diverse student body, including a "comprehensive review" policy beginning in fall 2002 that considers applicants' academic and non-academic achievements in the context of their opportunities and life experiences. In 2023, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that race-based admissions were unconstitutional, effectively ending the consideration of race at California’s private institutions too. 9 analysis full gutter Student Access Undergraduate Demographics Larger Shares of UC Undergraduates Are at Each End of the Income Spectrum Distribution of UC Resident Undergraduates by Family Income (2021 Dollars) 30% 25 2006-07 2021-22 20 15 10 5 Under $31,000 to $62,000 to $93,000 to $124,000 to $154,000 to $185,000 or $31,000 $62,000 $93,000 $124,000 $154,000 $185,000 higher UC and CSU also report data on “first-generation students”—specifically the percent of undergraduates whose parents do not have a bachelor’s degree or higher. From 2013 to 2022, the share of undergraduates who are first generation fell from 42 percent to 37 percent at UC and from 56 percent to 53 percent at CSU. Growing Share of CCC Students Are Younger Percent of CCC Students Who Are Under Age 25 75% 65 55 45 35 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 10 analysis full gutter Student Access First-Time Freshmen Freshman Applications to UC Continue to Increase California Resident Freshman Students Applying, Admitted to, and Enrolling at UC in Fall Term 140,000 120,000 Applied 100,000 80,000 Admitted 60,000 40,000 Enrolled 20,000 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 Since 2000, more high schools have begun offering college-preparatory courses and more students have completed those courses. Additionally, UC has made several changes to its admission policies, including establishing comprehensive review and removing the requirement to submit standardized test scores. These factors have resulted in more students potentially being eligible to attend as freshmen. Notably, even as California’s college-age population has declined steadily since 2016, UC freshman applications have continued rising (up 26 percent). Freshman Admission Rates Are Decreasing at Nearly All UC Campuses Under UC’s freshman referral Percent of California Resident Freshman Applicants Who Are Admitted in Fall Term policy, eligible applicants who are not admitted to their campus(es) 2002 2012 2022 of choice are redirected to the Merced campus. On average, Los Angeles 25% 19% 9% fewer than 2 percent of redirected Berkeley 26 18 14 Irvine 58 38 18 freshmen have enrolled at the San Diego 44 32 24 Merced campus since this policy Santa Barbara 52 42 27 has been in place. Davis 64 45 32 Santa Cruz 84 61 43 Riverside 83 61 67 Merced — 77 92 11 analysis full gutter Student Access First-Time Freshmen Freshman Applications to CSU Are Down From 2016 Peak California Resident Freshman Students Applying, Admitted to, and Enrolling at CSU in Fall Term 200,000 Applied 160,000 120,000 Admitted 80,000 Enrolled 40,000 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 Freshman Admission Rates Are Increasing at Most CSU Campuses Number of CSU Campuses by Fall Admission Rate for California Resident Freshmen Admission Rate 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 90% or more 1 2 3 12 12 75-90% 3 8 12 6 6 50-75% 13 9 5 2 2 Less than 50% 6 4 3 3 3 Totals 23 23 23 23 23 Though CSU admission rates are increasing, some CSU campuses and programs remain impacted, with more student demand than enrollment slots. To manage demand, impacted campuses and programs adopt stricter admissions criteria. Six CSU campuses have all their academic programs impacted in 2023-24. Students who are not admitted to their CSU campus(es) of choice are redirected to other CSU campuses that have space. 12 analysis full gutter Student Access Transfer Students Transfer Applications to UC Are Up Substantially Since 2000 but Dipped in 2022 California Resident Transfer Students Applying, Admitted to, and Enrolling at UC in Fall Term 45,000 40,000 35,000 Applied 30,000 25,000 Admitted 20,000 15,000 Enrolled 10,000 5,000 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 Figure includes students transferring from CCC as well as students transferring from other postsecondary institutions. Transfer Admission Rates Are Up at Some UC Campuses, Down at Others Under UC’s referral Transfer Admission Rates for California Residents in Fall Term policy, transfer applicants who meet 2002 2012 2022 systemwide eligibility requirements but are Berkeley 32% 22% 25% Los Angeles 33 28 25 not admitted to their Irvine 67 42 41 campus(es) of choice Santa Barbara 70 50 58 are redirected to the Davis 70 56 60 Merced, Riverside, San Diego 61 42 61 and Santa Cruz Riverside 73 64 61 Santa Cruz 69 67 61 campuses. Merced — 48 64 13 analysis full gutter Student Access Transfer Students Transfer Applications to CSU Recently Started to Decrease California Resident Transfer Students Applying, Admitted to, and Enrolling at CSU in Fall Term 120,000 Applied 100,000 Admitted 80,000 60,000 Enrolled 40,000 20,000 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 Figure includes students transferring from CCC as well as students transferring from other postsecondary institutions. Transfer Admission Rates Are Increasing at Most CSU Campuses Number of CSU Campuses by Fall Admission Rate for California Resident Transfer Students Admission Rate 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 90% or more — 2 4 5 1 75-90% 7 6 5 5 11 50-75% 10 6 10 9 8 Less than 50% 6 9 4 4 3 Totals 23 23 23 23 23 Key Issue With the segments competing more intensely with one another for students, the Legislature is likely to face fundamental decisions about each segment’s mission, including which programs and degrees each segment offers. As with enrollment growth decisions, these decisions could have important implications for the size and cost of each segment in the years to come. 14 analysis full gutter Student Access Emerging CCC Enrollment Strategies CCC Has Seen Rapid Growth in Dual Enrollment Although overall CCC enrollment Fall Headcount of CCC Dual Enrollment Students has declined, enrollment has 140,000 increased among certain student populations—including high school 120,000 students dually enrolled in college courses. Since 2016, growth in 100,000 dual enrollment has been due in 80,000 large part to CCAP, a program that allows high school students to take 60,000 college-level classes on a high Other Dual Enrollment Courses school campus. As of fall 2022, 40,000 dual enrollment students account 20,000 for about 10 percent of total CCC College and Career Access Pathways (CCAP) headcount (and about 5 percent of total CCC full-time equivalent 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 students). CCC Is Also Serving More Incarcerated Students Fall Headcount of CCC Incarcerated Students 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 In 2015, the federal government created a 6,000 pilot program offering certain incarcerated students Pell Grants. Beginning in July 2023, 4,000 incarcerated students are more broadly eligible for Pell Grants. 2,000 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 Small but Growing Number of CCC Bachelor Degree Students Since 2016, Fall Headcount in CCC Bachelor Degree Programs 15 community colleges 800 have offered certain 700 bachelor’s degree programs on a pilot 600 basis. Beginning 500 in 2022, state law 400 authorizes CCC to add 300 up to 30 additional bachelor’s degree 200 programs each year. 100 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 15 analysis full gutter Student Access STEM Enrollment Share of University Students With STEM Majors Is Growing Gradually Percent of Undergraduates Enrolled in STEM Majors 50% 45 UC 40 35 30 CSU 25 20 15 10 5 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 STEM = science, technology, engineering, and mathematics. Latinos Comprise a Growing Share of STEM Majors Percent of Undergraduate STEM Majors Who Are Latino 50% 45 40 35 CSU 30 25 20 UC 15 10 5 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 STEM = science, technology, engineering, and mathematics. 16 analysis full gutter Student Access STEM Enrollment Share of STEM Majors Who Are Female Is Up at UC, Flat at CSU Percent of Undergraduate STEM Majors Who Are Female 48% 47 46 45 UC 44 43 42 CSU 41 40 39 38 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 STEM = science, technology, engineering, and mathematics. Certain STEM Subjects Account for Growing Share of CCC Instruction Percent of CCC Fall FTES in Certain STEM Subject Areas 8% 7 Biological Sciences 6 Physical Sciences 5 Health Engineering 4 3 Information Technology 2 1 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 FTES = full-time equivalent students and STEM = science, technology, engineering, and mathematics. Key Issue The state’s economy likely will continue to see growth in particular areas, such as health care, which in turn will have implications for the labor force and educational programs. Moving forward, the Legislature will face key decisions about how best to train workers in these areas. 17 analysis full gutter Student Access Online Enrollment CCC Online Instruction Remains Above Pre-Pandemic Levels Percent of CCC Annual FTES Delivered Through Distance Education 70% 60 50 40 30 20 10 1992-93 1996-97 2000-01 2004-05 2008-09 2012-13 2016-17 2020-21 FTES = full-time equivalent students. CCC classifies a course as "distance education" if at least 51 percent of instruction is delivered using distance education technology. Growth in Online Instruction Varies Widely Across Subject Areas Percent of CCC Annual FTES Delivered Through Distance Education in Selected Subject Areas 90% Business 80 70 60 Humanities 50 40 Health 30 20 10 Engineering 1992-93 1996-97 2000-01 2004-05 2008-09 2012-13 2016-17 2020-21 FTES = full-time equivalent students. Online Instruction Also Remains …And UC Above Pre-Pandemic Levels at CSU… Percent of UC Undergraduate Credit Hours Percent of CSU Credit Hours Taught in Taught in Online or Hybrid Courses Online or Hybrid Courses 100% 100% 80 80 Hybrid Hybrid Online Online 60 60 40 40 20 20 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 18 analysis full gutter Student Access Graduate Enrollment More Than Half of California's Graduate Students Attend Private Institutions Graduate Fall Headcount by Segment 350,000 300,000 Private for-profit 250,000 UC 200,000 CSU 150,000 100,000 Private nonprofit 50,000 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Over the past 20 years, the share of graduate students enrolled at CSU has fallen (from 31 percent to 19 percent), while the share enrolled at each of the other segments has increased. Racial/Ethnic Diversity Is Increasing Among California's Graduate Students Graduate Fall Headcount by Race/Ethnicity 400,000 350,000 300,000 Other 250,000 International 200,000 Black Asian/Pacific Islander 150,000 Latino 100,000 50,000 White 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 "Other" includes American Indian students, multiracial students, and students of unknown race/ethnicity. 19 analysis full gutter Student Access Graduate Enrollment Medical School Enrollment Is Growing Headcount at California Medical Schools 10,000 9,000 Private for-profit 8,000 7,000 6,000 Private nonprofit 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 Public 1,000 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 Since 2015, four new private medical schools (two nonprofit and two for-profit) have opened in California. Law School Enrollment Is Down Fall J.D. Headcount at California's Nationally Accredited Law Schools 16,000 14,000 Private for-profit 12,000 10,000 8,000 Private nonprofit 6,000 4,000 2,000 Public 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Since 2019, one of California's private nonprofit law schools has closed and two others have lost or withdrawn from accreditation by the American Bar Association. J.D. = Juris Doctor. 20 analysis full gutter 21 analysis full gutter 22 analysis full gutter 23 analysis full gutter LAO PUBLICATIONS This report was prepared by Lisa Qing, with contributions from Ian Klein and Paul Steenhausen. It was designed by Vu Chu and reviewed by Jennifer Pacella. The Legislative Analyst’s Office (LAO) is a nonpartisan office that provides fiscal and policy information and advice to the Legislature. To request publications call (916) 445-4656. This report and others, as well as an e-mail subscription service, are available on the LAO’s website at www.lao.ca.gov. The LAO is located at 925 L Street, Suite 1000, Sacramento, California 95814. 24