CalFacts 2024

Legislative Analyst’s Office Gabriel Petek | Legislative Analyst 2024 1 At the Legislative Analyst’s Office, we provide a variety of reports to assist the Legislature’s efforts in addressing California’s budget and policy challenges. Among these resources is CalFacts, which offers foundational information helpful for understanding these complex issues. CalFacts presents a wide range of facts and trends about the state’s economy, finances, and programs, many of which are reflected in the questions frequently faced by the Legislature and policy community. These concise snapshots add context that aims to help policymakers and the public alike to better understand California’s complicated policy landscape. We hope you find CalFacts to be a valuable, go-to reference. Gabriel Petek Legislative Analyst 2 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS California Economy...............................................................................................................5 State and Local Finance....................................................................................................11 Education.............................................................................................................................21 Health and Human Services...........................................................................................33 Environment and Transportation...................................................................................43 Other.......................................................................................................................................51 4 Legislative Analyst Gabriel Petek Chief Deputy Legislative Analyst Chief Deputy Legislative Analyst Ross Brown Carolyn Chu K-12 Education Economy, Taxes, and Labor Edgar Cabral, Deputy Brian Uhler, Deputy Michael Alferes Chas Alamo Sara Cortez Alex Bentz Kenneth Kapphahn Rowan Isaaks Seth Kerstein Higher Education Jennifer Pacella, Deputy Health, Developmental Services, and Technology Natalie Gonzalez Mark Newton, Deputy Ian Klein Lisa Qing Jason Constantouros Karina Hendren Brian Metzker Environment and Transportation Ryan Miller Rachel Ehlers, Deputy Will Owens Frank Jimenez Human Services and Helen Kerstein Governance Luke Koushmaro Ginni Bella Navarre, Deputy Sonja Petek Sonia Schrager Russo Public Safety and Business Nick Schroeder Regulation Angela Short Drew Soderborg, Deputy Paul Steenhausen Juwan Trotter Heather Gonzalez Anita Lee State Budget Condition Caitlin O’Neil Ann Hollingshead Orlando Sanchez Zavala Administration and Support Information Services Kelley Sammarcelli, Michael Greer, Manager Administrative Officer Vu Chu Sarah Barkman Linda Le Karla Belmonte Mohammed Mohammed Saeed Tamara Lockhart Anthony Lucero Sarah Scanlon 5 C A L I F O R N I A E C O N O M Y 6 California's 18 Million Jobs Spread Across Many Sectors and Regions Health and Social Services Government Hotels and Food Retail Business Services Manufacturing Construction Transportation Finance and Real Estate Information Wholesale Trade All Other 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 San Diego Other Greater Los Angeles Bay Area San Joaquin Greater Valley Sacramento High Concentration of Technology Jobs California share of U.S. Jobs 10 20 30 40% Web Search Infrastructure, Data Processing, and Web Hosting Streaming Services and Social Networks Software publishers All Jobs Regional Share of Statewide Jobs in Key Sectors Greater Sacramento 20 40 60 80% Share of All Jobs Share of All State Government Jobs Greater Los Angeles Share of All Jobs Share of All Transportation and Warehousing Jobs San Joaquin Valley Share of All Jobs Share of All Agricultural Jobs Bay Area Share of All Jobs Share of All Technology Jobs 7 California's Incomes Higher Than U.S. Household Income, 2022 Median California United States 90th Percent California United States 50K 100K 150K 200K 250K $300K Incomes Vary Across Regions in the State Median and 90th Percentile Household Incomes Bay Area Central Coast San Diego Greater Los Angeles Greater Sacramento San Joaquin Valley 50K 100K 150K 200K 250K 300K 350K $400K Californians Earn a Range of Wages 2024 Median Hourly Wage $120 Information Technology Managers 800K Workers 100 300K Lawyers 80K Software Developers 80 Registered Nurses Health Services Managers Sales Managers General Managers 60 Management Executive Assistants 40 Truck Drivers 20 Cashiers Fast Food Workers Farmworkers Home Health Aids Waiters 8 California's Population Has Gotten Older and More Racially Diverse 2000 2022 Share of State's Population by Age Group 50% 40 30 20 10 0 to 24 25 to 44 45 to 64 65+ Share of State's Population by Race/Ethnicity 50% 40 30 20 10 Hispanic/Latino White Asian Black Multiracial and Other Non-Hispanic/Latino 9 High Housing Costs and Homelessness Are Perennial Challenges in California California Has Higher Rents... ...And Builds Less Housing Average Two Bedroom Rent (2024) Building Permits Per 1,000 Residents U.S. California $2,225 U.S. California 4.5 $1,400 2.9 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2023 Disproportionate Share of Country’s Homeless Population Lives in California State’s Share of the Country’s... 48% While homelessness is a complex problem with many causes, the high 28% cost of housing is a significant contributor. As of January 2023, California had about 180,000 residents 12% experiencing homelessness. Since 2007, California has seen a 31 percent increase in the number of residents experiencing homelessness. Overall Homeless Unsheltered Population Population Homeless Populationª ª For example, living on the streets, in a vehicle, or in a park. 10 Innovation and Startups Are an Important Part of California Economy New Businesses Per Resident California consistently creates more new businesses per resident California than most other states. Rest of U.S. 2014 2017 2020 2023 Venture Capital Funding 2019-2023 One important driver of startup activity is ample venture capital funding. California companies California receive nearly half of all venture Rest of U.S. funding in the U.S. Money Raised From California IPOs $47 Billion As startups mature, some open to public investors through initial public offerings (IPOs). IPOs are a significant, but volatile, source of wealth creation in California. 2014 2017 2020 2023 11 S TAT E A N D L O C A L F I N A N C E 12 Overview of California's Tax System California state and local governments raise around $300 billion per year from taxes. Most of these revenues come from taxes on personal income, corporate profits, retail sales, and property values. Smaller state taxes include those on vehicles, fuels, insurance, cannabis, tobacco, and alcohol. Smaller local taxes include those on hotels, utilities, and property sales. State Taxes Local Taxes Personal Income Corporation Sales Property Investment Income Other Personal Income Tax Business The average income taxpayer pays a tax rate of Income about 2 percent. Incomes over roughly $700,000 Wages for singles ($1.4 million for married couples) are and taxed at a rate of 13.3 percent. Salaries Capital Gains Other Property Tax Commercial Rental The average property owner pays a tax rate of Housing 1.1 percent on the taxable value of their property. A property’s taxable value is tied to its original purchase price. Owner-Occupied General Housing Merchandise Nonstore Retailers Manufacturing Sales Tax Other California’s sales tax rate varies across the state, Car Dealers ranging from 7.25 percent to 10.75 percent. The statewide average rate is 8.8 percent. Wholesale Bars and Restaurants 13 Reserves Mitigate Revenue Volatility Major sources of revenues to the state’s main budget account, the General Fund, are volatile. This means revenues tend to grow faster and fall more quickly than underlying cost pressures. Swings in revenues can lead to large increases in spending during good economic times and the need to make large cuts in bad economic times. General Fund Taxes More Volatile Than Underlying Cost Pressures Year-Over-Year Percent Change 40% General Fund Major Taxes Inflation (State and Local Deflator) 30 20 10 -10 -20 One way to prevent revenue volatility from resulting in corresponding swings in spending is to build reserves—that is, set aside funds in good times to support spending during downturns. Proposition 2 (2014), which requires the state to set aside funds annually into the rainy-day fund, has helped the state build much larger reserves than was the case historically. Reserves Have Grown in Recent Years Percent of General Fund Revenues 14% 12 10 8 Proposition 2 Passed by Voters 6 4 2 81-82 86-87 91-92 96-97 01-02 06-07 11-12 16-17 21-22 14 Most State Spending for Education and HHS General Fund and Special Fund Spending in 2024-25 Housing CCC Other CSU UC Financial Aid Other State and Local Corrections Other Courts DMV CHP Roads, Highways, CourtsOther and Mass Transit and Criminal Justice Education Transportation K-12 Other Resources and Environment Health and Child Care Human Services SSI/SSP IHSS DDS Recycling and Recovery Forestry and Fire State Hospitals Medi-Cal Water, Fish, and Wildlife Air Quality and Toxics Parks and Conservation Other HHS = Health and Human Services; DDS = Department of Developmental Services; IHSS = In-Home Supportive Services; CHP = California Highway Patrol; and DMV = Department of Motor Vehicles. State Spending Exceeds Historic Averages General Fund and Special Funds as Percent of Personal Income 12% For a few decades, state spending as a 10 share of the economy remained roughly flat. 8 6 Double digit revenue growth during and immediately after the pandemic led to a surge in state spending. Since then, however, revenues (and spending) 4 have fallen from this peak but have not yet returned to the historic average. 2 1950-5155-56 60-61 65-66 70-71 75-76 80-81 85-86 90-91 95-96 00-01 05-06 10-11 15-16 20-21 HHS = Health and Human Services. 15 Average Annual Growth in Major State Programs From 2020-21 to 2023-24 General Fund and Special Fund, K-12 and Community Colleges Includes Local Property Taxes Average Growth Rate Education and Child Care K-12 Education Higher Education CSAC Community Colleges CSU Health and Human Services UC DPH SSI/SSP Medi-Cal DSH Child Care IHSS Environment and Resources DDS CPUC CalFire CARB SWRCB CalRecycle Retiree Health Debt Related General Obligation Bonds Criminal Justice CDCR Judicial Branch Transportation CalTrans DMV CHP -30 -20 -10 10 20 30 40% CSAC = California Student Aid Commission; DPH = Department of Public Health; DSH = Department of State Hospitals; IHSS = In-Home Supportive Services; DDS = Department of Developmental Services; CARB = California Air Resources Board; CalRecycle = California's Department of Resources Recycling and Recovery; CPUC = California Public Utilities Commission; CalFire = California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection; CDCR = California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation; SWRCB = State Water Resources Control Board; DMV = Department of Motor Vehicles; and CHP = California Highway Patrol. 16 State Operations Represent About One-Quarter of General Fund Spending State General Fund Expenditures, 2022-23ª Nearly three-fourths of state General Fund expenditures go to other entities (for example, local governments, schools, or health plans). Local Assistance $141 billion State Operations $51 billion Higher Executive Branch Education Legislative and Judicial Branches More than one-half of Executive Branch General Personnel Costs Non-Personnel Costs Fund expenditures pay for state employee salaries, benefits, and retirement benefits. CalFire FTB Five departments account for three-fourths CDCR of state General Fund personnel costs. DSH DWR Remaining 144 Departments a Excludes capital outlay and unclassified expenditures. CDCR = California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation; DSH = Department of State Hospitals; CalFire = California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection; FTB = Franchise Tax Board; and DWR = Department of Water Resources. 17 California Is Composed of a Large Network of Local Governmentsª Counties, cities, and special districts use their revenues to provide services to residents living in their jurisdiction. Local Governments Cities Counties Special Districts 483 58 About 2,000 ª School and community college districts also are considered local governments. Local Governments Provide a Wide Array of Services to Their Communities Cities Provide police, fire, parks, waste management, and other municipal services to residents within city limits. Governed by a city council (typically five or seven elected members), led by a mayor. Counties Administer programs on behalf of the state, such as health and human services programs. Run countywide services such as jail, probation, and elections. Also provide services similar to those provided by cities to residents living outside city limits. (About 16 percent of Californians do not live within city limits.) Governed by county supervisors (often five elected officials). Special Provide certain specialized municipal services (in place of cities Districts and counties), such as water and pest abatement. Governed by board members who are either elected or appointed by other locally elected government officials. 18 Local Property Tax Revenues Vary Per Capita Allocations to County, City, and Special District Governments in 2023-24 Imperial Kings Butte Madera Tulare Stanislaus Del Norte Lassen Merced Shasta Tehama Fresno Humboldt San Benito County Cities Special Districts Yuba Riverside Kern San Bernardino Sutter Siskiyou Yolo Glenn Modoc San Joaquin Property tax revenue helps pay for municipal services Lake like police and fire. Variation in per capita property tax Trinity revenue around the state is due to several factors, Mendocino Santa Cruz including differences in the assessed value of property Solano (the basis upon which property tax is calculated), Mariposa property tax rates prior to Proposition 13 (1978), and the Tuolumne amount of development in unincorporated areas. San Diego Monterey Sacramento Orange Amador Calaveras Sonoma Placer Ventura San Luis Obispo Contra Costa Santa Barbara Los Angeles Plumas Colusa Santa Clara Alameda Nevada El Dorado Inyo San Mateo Napa Sierra Marin San Francisco 250 500 750 1,000 1,250 1,500 1,750 2,000 2,250 $2,500 Note: San Francisco is both a county and a city. Figure excludes Alpine County and Mono County because their large property tax amounts ($5,845 per capita and $3,883 per capita, respectively) skew the scale. 19 Highlights of the State-Local Fiscal Relationship Over the last several decades, California has seen significant changes in the fiscal and programmatic relationship between the state and local government. Limited State Limited Local Authority or Expanded Authority or Expanded Limited Both State Local Responsibilities State Responsibilities and Local Authority Proposition 13 (1978) Limited local property Required a two-thirds tax to 1 percent of vote of the Legislature assessed value and for state taxes and transferred control of approval by two-thirds its allocation to the of voters for local state. special taxes. Proposition 4 (1979) Required state Placed a limit on certain reimbursement for local and state certain local costs. spending. Proposition 98 (1988) Established for the state a minimum annual funding requirement to provide to schools and community colleges. 1991, 2011, and 2020 Major shift in authority Realignments and funds from state to counties for certain health and human services (1991), criminal justice and other programs (2011), and the incarceration of youth offenders (2020). Proposition 218 (1996) Limited local government authority to impose certain taxes, fees, and assessments. Proposition 1A (2004) Restricted the state from reducing local property tax, sales tax, and vehicle license fee revenues. Proposition 22 (2010) Reduced the state’s authority to use or redirect state fuel tax and property taxes. Proposition 26 (2010) Broadened the definition of a “tax,” requiring more revenue measures to get voter approval (local governments) and for the state, two-thirds legislative vote or approval of a majority of statewide voters. 20 21 E D U C AT I O N 22 California's K-12 Student Population Differs From the Nation 2022 Data, Unless Otherwise Noted U.S. CA Race/Ethnicity Hispanic/Latino 29% 56% White 20% 45% Asian/Pacific Islander 6% 12% Black 5% 15% Other Student Demographics Disability 13% 14% English Learnersª 11% 19% Family Characteristics Eligible for Free or Reduced Price School Meals 53% 58% Speaks Language Other Than English 23% 44% Parent With Less Than 11% 18% High School Diploma Parent With Bachelor's Degree or Higher 34% 37% ª Fall 2021 data. 23 Although Many Districts Are Small, Most Students Attend Large Districts Number of Districts by Size, 2022-23 450 350 About 3.1 million students (65 percent) attend a district with more than 10,000 students. 250 150 50 Up to 101 to 1,001 to More Than About 120,000 students Nearly 1.6 million 100 1,000 10,000 10,000 (3 percent) attend a students (32 percent) district with fewer than attend a district with District Attendance 1,000 students. 1,000 to 10,000 students. Statewide Enrollment Declines Projected to Continue 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 Decline of 325,000 4,000,000 students (5 percent) occurred from 2019-20 Decline of nearly 600,000 3,000,000 to 2023-24. students (10 percent) projected 2,000,000 from 2023-24 to 2033-34. 1,000,000 2004-05 2010-11 2015-16 2020-21 2025-26 2030-31 Student Absences Surged During the Pandemic Average Missed Days of School Per Student 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 Data not available 2 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 24 State Is the Largest Source of School Funding Total Operational and Capital Funding by Source, 2021-22 State Funds Local Property Taxes U.S. Average Federal Grants California Other Local Funds 10 20 30 40 50 60% Unlike most other states, the California Constitution sets a minimum state contribution but caps local property tax rates. School Funding Has Risen Sharply Since 2020 State and Local Operational Funding Per Student, 2024-25 Dollars $20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 1988-89 1992-93 1996-97 2000-01 2004-05 2008-09 2012-13 2016-17 2020-21 2024-25 California School Spending Currently Ranks Above Most Other States Rank Among the 50 States and Washington DC (Funding Per Student) 16 18 18 2022-23 21 1986-87 23 2018-19 1990-91 26 2006-07 29 2002-03 32 34 2014-15 1998-99 36 1994-95 2010-11 25 Schools Are Primarily Funded Through Local Control Funding Formula (LCFF) State and Local Operational Funding, 2023-24 Special Education $6.2 Billion Categorical LCFF Programs Before and After School $81.2 Billion $17.2 Billion Programs $4.8 Billion Other $2.6 Billion State Preschool $1.8 Billion Child Nutrition $1.8 Billion LCFF Provides Additional Funding for English Learners and Low-Income (EL/LI) Students Per-Student Rates for Grades K-3 Based on District EL/LI Share, 2024-25 0% EL/LI Share $11,068 Total Funding $0 Additional Funding $11,621 25% EL/LI Share $553 $12,175 50% EL/LI Share $1,107 $14,167 75% EL/LI Share $3,099 $16,519 100% EL/LI Share $5,441 Base Funding Additional Funding 26 California Students Score Below National Average Average Score on National Assessment of 4th Grade Math 245 240 Nation 235 230 225 California 220 215 Scores generally follow a similar pattern for other grade levels and subjects. 210 2000 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2022 Many Students Do Not Meet State Standards Reading Scores, Spring 2023 Below At or Above Standard Standard 4th Grade 6th Grade 8th Grade 11th Grade Low-Income Students Meet Black and Latino Students Standards at Lower Rates Graduate High School at Lower Rates Percent of Students That Met or Exceed Standards in 4th Grade Reading, 2022-23 Four-Year Graduation Rate, 2022-23 90% Non-Low Income State Average 80 Low Income Black 70 60 50 State Hispanic/Latino 40 Average 30 20 White 10 Black Hispanic/ White Asian/Pacific Latino Islander Asian/Pacific Islander 20 40 60 80 100% 27 California Has Extensive Higher Education System UC University of California CSU California State University CCC California Community Colleges Public Segments Have Different Missions California Community Colleges CCC • Provides lower-division courses leading to associate degrees (and transfer to universities), career technical education, and precollegiate adult education, among other programs. • 115 local colleges plus one statewide online college. California State University CSU • Provides undergraduate and graduate education primarily through the master's degree, including teacher education. • 23 campuses. University of California UC • Provides undergraduate and graduate education through the doctoral degree, law and medical degrees, and academic research. • Ten campuses, five medical centers, three national labs. Community Colleges Enroll More Than Half of All Students Share of Total Headcount, 2021-22 Private for- Profit Private Nonprofit 3.5 Million UC Students CCC CSU 28 Racial/Ethnic Composition of the Student Body Varies by Segment Share of Undergraduate Headcount by Race/Ethnicity, 2021-22(cid:4) California Population College-Age Population All Undergraduates CCC CSU UC Private Nonprofit Private for-Profit 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100% Hispanic/Latino White Asian/Pacific Islander Black American Indian/Native Alaskan Multiracial Note: "College-age population" reflects people ages 18 to 24 in California. Undergraduate data excludes U.S. nonresidents and students whose race/ethnicity is unknown. Number of UC Applicants Has Been Rising Steeply California Resident Freshman Students Applying, Admitted to, and Enrolling at UC in Fall Term 140,000 120,000 Applied 100,000 80,000 Admitted 60,000 40,000 Enrolled 20,000 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 29 Core Per-Student Funding Is Highest at UC Core Funding Per Full-Time Equivalent (FTE) Student, 2024-25 Dollars $60,000 50,000 UC 40,000 30,000 CSU 20,000 10,000 CCC Over the period shown, core funding per student has dropped somewhat at UC (13 percent), increased somewhat at CSU (10 percent), and increased more markedly 94-9596-9798-9900-0102-0304-0506-0708-0910-1112-1314-1516-1718-1920-2122-2324-25 at CCC (58 percent). Note: At UC and CSU, 1 FTE student represents 30 credit units for an undergraduate and 24 credit units for a graduate student. At CCC, 1 FTE student represents 525 contact hours per year, which on average generates about 24 credits. State Is Largest Source of Core Funding and Growing Breakdown of Core Funding Per FTE Student, 2024-25 Dollars $50,000 Nonresident Student Tuition/Other 45,000 Resident Student Tuition 40,000 Local Property Tax 35,000 State 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 2014-15 2024-25 2014-15 2024-25 2014-15 2024-25 UC CSU CCC Note: At UC, "other" includes a portion of overhead on federal research grants and patent royalty income. 30 noitiutnoN noitiuT Tuition Peaked During Great Recession Tuition and Systemwide Fees for New Resident Undergraduates, 2024-25 Dollars CCC has the lowest tuition among community colleges across the nation. CSU has somewhat lower tuition than its peers nationally, while UC has somewhat higher tuition than its peers. $20,000 18,000 UC 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 CSU 8,000 6,000 4,000 CCC 2,000 2005-06 2007-08 2009-10 2011-12 2013-14 2015-16 2017-18 2019-20 2021-22 2023-24 For Most Students, Nontuition Costs Are More Than Half of Overall College Costs Cost of Attendance for Resident Undergraduates by Living Arrangement, Average Across Campuses, 2022-23 $40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 CCC CSU UC On Campus Off Campus With Family 31 California Undergraduates Receive More Than $9 Billion in Gift Aid Annually Major Gift Aid Programs for Undergraduates, 2022-23 CSU State University Grants UC Grants Institutional $1.5 Billion SSCG MCS Federal Pell Grants $9.1 Billion $3.9 Billion CCC Fee Waivers State $3.7 Billion Cal Grants SEOG SEOG = Supplemental Education Opportunity Grants; MCS = Middle Class Scholarships; and SSCG = Student Success Completion Grants‰. Net Price of College Remains Lowest for Lowest-Income Students Average Net Price for UC Resident Undergraduate Dependent Students by Family Income, 2022 Dollars $45,000 $180,000 or higher 40,000 35,000 30,000 $120,000 to $180,000 25,000 $60,000 to $120,000 20,000 Under $60,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 2007-08 2009-10 2011-12 2013-14 2015-16 2017-18 2019-20 2021-22 Net price is the cost of attendance that students and their families pay after accounting for gift aid. Although the data on net price by family income is more limited at CSU and CCC, it suggests that net price at these segments also tends to be lower for low-income students. 32 UC's Graduation Rate Is Higher Than Other Segments, But CSU's Rate Has Improved the Most Six-Year Cohort Graduation Rates for First-Time, Full-Time Freshmen 100% UC 80 California Nonprofit Universities 60 CSU 40 Graduation rates in California are higher than average graduation rates among each segment's peer institutions across the country. 20 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Note: Cohort-based charts show data by the year each cohort entered college (for example, the percentage of freshmen entering in fall 2016 who had graduated before fall 2022). Community College Completion Rates Have Ticked Up but Remain Very Low Two- and Three-Year Cohort Completion Rates for First-Time Students 20% 18 16 Three-Year Rate 14 12 10 8 6 Two-Year Rate 4 2 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 33 H E A LT H A N D H U M A N S E R V I C E S 34 Poverty Rates in California Vary 4.6 million Californians (12 percent) lived below the federal poverty level (FPL) in 2022. Under the supplemental poverty measure (SPM), which accounts for cost of living and safety net benefits, the state’s poverty rate was 19 percent. Poverty Rates Higher in ...and Highest in California Than San Joaquin Valley and United States... Los Angeles County 30% 25 California (SPM) 11% 12% 20 California (FPL) 15 U.S. (FPL) 10 9% 14% U.S. (SPM) 5 16% 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020a 2022 12% 11% 13% 10% 12% Note: Rates are FPL-based. Highest Poverty Rates: Children, Black and American Indian/Alaska Native Californians, and Adults Who Did Not Graduate High School 20% 15 10 5 81 rednU 46 ot 81 revO dna 56 elameF elaM kcalB /naidnI naciremA evitaN aksalA naisA onitaL/cinapsiH etihW secaR eroM ro owT hgiH nahT sseL etaudarG loohcS etaudarG loohcS hgiH egelloC emoS s'rolehcaB rehgiH ro eergeD a Due to sampling issues during the COVID-19 pandemic, SPM rates in 2020 are three-year averages (2018-2020). The decrease in the SPM poverty rate in 2021 (relative to 2020) and subsequent increase in 2022 are largely due to the provision of temporary benefits (in response to the COVID-19 pandemic). Age Gender Race/Ethnicity Education Level Notes: Data from American Community Survey. Some individuals are counted in more than one group. Educational attainment only includes Californians 25 years and over. 35 State Administers Array of Health and Human Services (HHS) Programs HHS programs provide a variety of services to millions of California residents. Many individuals are enrolled in more than one program at a time. Program Caseload 2023-24ª Five-Year Change Through 2023-24b Medi-Cal: +17% Health care services 15.2 million for low-income Californians. CalFresh: +30% Food assistance for low-income 5.0 million individuals and families.a SSI/SSP: Cash assistance for low-income 1.1 million -10% aged, blind, and disabled individuals. WIC: Food and nutrition services for -3% 990,000 pregnant women, new mothers, and young children. CalWORKs: Cash assistance and employment 858,000 -7% services for low-income families. IHSS: +24% In-home personal care for 665,000 low-income aged, blind, and disabled individuals. Developmental Services: +29% Services for individuals with intellectual and developmental 430,000 disabilities. +63% Child Care: Subsidized child care for 356,000 low-income families. Child Welfare: Services to protect children from abuse and neglect and 197,000 -11% to strengthen families.b a Includes California Food Assistance Program recipients. b Includes child welfare services, foster care, Approved Relative Caregiver Program, Adoption Assistance Program, and Kinship Guardianship Assistance Payment Program. WIC = Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children; CalWORKs = California Work Opportunity and Responsibility to Kids; and IHSS = In-Home Supportive Services. 36 HHS Programs Funded by Multiple Sources DDS Child Care IHSS SSI/SSP Medi-Cal CalWORKsChild WelfareªCalFreshb WIC $13.5 billion $6 billion $24 billion $11 billion $157 billion $7 billion $10 billion $16 billion $1 billion Other State and Local Funds DDS and child care programs Federal Funds receive about half of their funding General Fund from the state General Fund... CalFreshb $1 billion CalWORKs $1 billion Child Welfareª $1 billion Child Care $3 billion SSI/SSP $4 billion Developmental Services ...However, Medi-Cal receives the most $8 billion $64 Billion General Fund in total. General Fund IHSS $8 billion Medi-Cal $37 billion Spending Growth Per Program Enrollee Varies Average Annual Change in Total Spending Per Program Enrollee From 2018-19 to 2023-24 Child Welfareª 11.6% Child Care 10.1% CalWORKs 9.3% IHSS 9.3% CalFreshb 8.7% Medi-Cal 8.4% DDS 7.4% WIC 5.8% SSI/SSP 5.2% a Includes child welfare services, foster care, Approved Relative Caregiver Program, Adoption Assistance Program, and Kinship Guardianship Assistance Payment Program. b Includes California Food Assistance Program recipients. HHS = Health and Human Services; DDS = Department of Developmental Services; IHSS = In-Home Supportive Services; CalWORKs = California Work Opportunity and Responsibility to Kids; and WIC = Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children. 37 Eligibility Limits and Benefits Vary Considerably for Safety Net Programs State and federal safety net programs aim to help low-income individuals and families mitigate poverty through the provision of cash assistance, cash-like assistance for necessities, subsidies, and other benefits. Individuals and families may be eligible for multiple programs. In addition to income, some programs rely on other factors to determine eligibility, such as age, disability status, and citizenship. Below, we outline the income eligibility rules and average monthly benefit for some of the state’s most Monthly Earned Income Eligibility Cap frequently used programs (some participants’ actual incomes and benefits may differ). Cash Assistance CalWORKs. Cash assistance and employment services for low-income families. Income Cap (Household of Three) $1,830 Average Benefit (Per Household) $1,000 SSI/SSP. Cash assistance for low-income aged, blind, and disabled individuals. Income Cap (Individual) $1,180 Average Benefit (Per Participant) $900 EITC. Refundable state and federal tax credit to low- to moderate-income working families. Income Cap (Household of Three) $2,580 $4,410 Average Benefit (Per Household) $240 State Cap Federal Cap Food Assistance WIC. Food and nutrition services for low-income pregnant women, new mothers, and young children. Income Cap (Household of Three) $3,980 Average Benefit (Per Participant) $80 CalFresh and California Food Assistance Program. Food assistance for low-income individuals and families. Income Cap (Household of Three) $4,300 Average Benefit (Per Household) $330 Child Care Subsidy CalWORKs Child Care. Subsidized child care for families currently or formerly participating in CalWORKs. Income Cap (Household of Three) $7,470 Average Benefit (Per Child) $820 Health Care Coverage Medi-Cal. Health coverage for low-income adults and children in California.ª Income Cap (Household of Three) $2,970 $5,730 Adult Cap Children Cap a Program spending depends on utilization of health care services, which varies considerably by beneficiary. Note: Based on most recently available data. CalWORKs = California Work Opportunity and Responsibility to Kids; EITC = Earned Income Tax Credit; and WIC = Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children. 38 Most Californians Have Health Coverage, From Many Sources Estimated Health Coverage in 2024 Uninsured Other Private Individual Market Medi-Cal Public Employer Private Medicare Medi-Cal and Medicare Other Public Note: LAO estimate uses information from the California Health Interview Survey, the Department of Health Care Services, Covered California, and the UC Berkeley Labor Center. Disparities in Health Coverage Persist Uninsured Rate by Group in 2022 Unemployed Employed Hispanic/Latino Black Asian White Below poverty level Above poverty level No bachelor's degree Bachelor's degree Adult (19-64) Child (18 and younger) Senior (65 and older) 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16% 39 Californians Have Lower Rates of Many Health Risks... Percent of Adult Population Reporting... 7 Limited Exercise 37.8% 40.1% California United States High Blood Pressure 30.6% 34% 3 Obesity 28.1% 33.6% Current Smokers 9.7% 14.0% In the figure above, lower values are better. Data from 2022 and 2023 national surveys. ...But Certain Groups Have Worse Health Outcomes Age-Adjusted Death Rate (Deaths Per 100,000) California Statewide Age-Adjusted Death Rate Cardiovascular Diseases Cancer Drug and Alcohol-Related Conditions Other Chronic Diseases Communicable Diseases Other Injuries American Indian/Alaska Native Asian Black 50 100 150 200 250 300 50 100 150 200 250 300 50 100 150 200 250 300 Hispanic/Latino Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander White 5.5 4.5 50 100 150 200 250 300 50 100 150 200 250 300 50 100 150 200 250 300 40 Public Community Mental Health Services Funding Flows Through Multiple Systems 2021-22 LAO Estimates Public community mental health includes publicly funded outpatient and inpatient mental health services and psychotropic medications provided primarily in community settings. In total, $12.8 billion flows through the system. It does not include services provided by state hospitals, prisons, Medicare, private insurance, or the K-12 educational system. Federal Funds $4.8 Billion Local Realignment Mental Health Revenues Services Fund State General Fund $3.7 Billion $3.2 Billion $1 Billion State Mental Health Services $1.9 Billion County Mental Health Services: $10.9 Billion The state is responsible for services provided to Counties have the primary role in funding and low-income individuals with relatively low service delivery of public mental health. In particular, needs (known as mild-to-moderate mental health). counties generally are responsible for services for Examples of these services–mostly provided low-income individuals with the highest service through Medi-Cal managed care plans–include needs (known as Medi-Cal specialty mental outpatient therapy and prescription medications. health). Examples of these services include residential treatment and crisis intervention. Note: Proposition 1 (2024) made broad changes to the Mental Health Services Act, including changing the name of the Mental Health Services Fund to the Behavioral Health Services Fund. 41 Developmental Services Consumers Can Receive a Variety of Services Total Spending, 2023-24 Estimated Employment $130 million Medical Care $280 million Transportation $460 million Other Services $1 billion Respite $1.2 billion Day Programs $1.4 billion Support Services $2.6 billion Residential Care $3 billion Most Developmental Services Consumers Live in the Community Residence Types for Developmental Services Consumers, 2023 Estimated Community Care Facility 27,100 Independent Living 27,100 Home of Parent/Guardian Nursing 281,800 Facilities 6,700 Other 4,800 Community Care Facility: 24-hour nonmedical care supporting activities of daily living. Independent Living: Training and assistance delivered to adults in a home or apartment. Nursing Facilities: Includes intermediate care and skilled nursing facilities. Developmental Center: 24-hour behavioral and/or health care in state-operated facilities. The number of consumers (about 210) is too small to display. 42 California's Aging (65+) Population Is Growing Rapidly, In Some Regions More Than Others 1980-2022 65+ Age Group Has More Than Doubled Since 1980 (In Millions) 7 6.2 6 5 4.3 4 3.6 3.0 3 2.4 2 1 1980 1990 2000 2010 2022 65-74 75-84 Over 300% 85+ 200-299% Total 100-199% Under 100% Enrollment in Medi-Cal and Home- and Community-Based Services Has Increased Significantlyª 2017-2022 The state prioritizes home- and community-based services (HCBS) over institutional long-term care (LTC) facilities for seniors and persons with disabilities. 30% Medi-Cal 25 (65+) HCBS LTSS (LTC + HCBS) 20 15 10 5 LTC -5 ª From Department of Health Care Services Medi-Cal LTSS Dashboard. LTSS = Long-Term Services and Supports. Note: Some individuals enroll in both LTC and HCBS programs. 43 E N V I R O N M E N T A N D T R A N S P O R TAT I O N 44 Pollution Burden Varies Across California Communities California uses measures of air pollution, water pollution, and other key indicators to rank communities by their pollution burden. Policymakers use these rankings to prioritize some state spending. Some communities in the Southern Central Valley generally rank higher on pollution burden measures such as drinking water contamination, pesticide use, and air indicators. In large urban areas, such as Los Angeles, the Bay Area, and San Diego, communities with high pollution burden rankings are often next to low-ranking communities. Data from the California Communities Environmental Health Screening Tool (CalEnviroScreen) Version 4.0, 2021. 45 California Has Adopted Ambitious Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Reduction Goals State Met 2020 GHG Target Early, But 2030 and 2045 Targets Are More Ambitious Million Metric Tons of GHGs Emitted State Regulations Require More Zero-Emission Cars 600 New Car Sales 500 Target 100% 2035 target 2020 68% 2030 target 400 Electricity 25% 2023 actual 300 Target Transportation 2030 200 100 Industry, Heating, Target Agriculture 2045 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 California's Energy Portfolio Shifted to Sources With Lower GHG Emissions Statewide Annual Electricity Generation in Gigawatt Hours 200,000 150,000 Zero-Emission Sources 100,000 Biomass Geothermal State law requires that an increasing Wind proportion of retail electricity come from 50,000 Nuclear lower GHG-emitting sources, reaching Hydro 100 percent by 2045. Solar Other Natural Gas 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 46 California’s Climate Is Heating Up Average Temperatures (May Through September), Fahrenheit 74° Annual Average 73 72 10-Year Moving 71 Average 70 100-Year Average 69 68 67 66 1924 1933 1942 1951 1960 1969 1978 1987 1996 2005 2014 2023 Increase in Extreme Heat Vulnerability to Extreme Varies by Region Heat Varies by Neighborhood Change in Average Annual Number of Health and Heat Index for Los Angeles Areab Extreme Heat Days 1979-83 to 2019-23ª Change in Days 1 - 6 7 - 11 12 - 16 17 - 21 Low 22 - 26 Low-Moderate Moderate-High High High-Top 10% In many cases, areas with higher proportions of lower-income residents and those that have limited tree cover tend to be more vulnerable to negative health impacts from extreme heat. The statewide average annual number of extreme heat days increased from 16 days during 1979-83 to 30 days during 2019-23. Inland counties experienced the largest increases. ª Extreme heat days are defined as days exceeding the 90th percentile of daily maximums from 1979 through 2019 during the months of May through September. b The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention calculate the Health and Heat Index as a percentile ranking of heat vulnerability compared to other zip codes in the nation using the number of extreme heat days, prevalence of health conditions such as asthma, sociodemographic indicators such as poverty, and natural and built environment characteristics such as tree cover. 47 California Faces Elevated Wildfire Risks Due to: • Naturally fire-prone ecosystems • Historical forest management practices • Climate change With Risks Exacerbated by More Housing in Fire Prone Areas Housing Units (In Millions) 2020 1990 1 2 3 4 5 6 Wildfire Likelihood More Likely Less Likely Most of the Largest and Increased State Spending on Most Destructive Wildfires Wildfire Response Have Occurred (In Billions) in Recent Decades $5 9 8 4 7 20 Largest 6 20 Most Destructive 3 5 2 4 3 1 2 1 07-08 11-12 15-16 19-20 23-24 1940s 1960s 1980s 2000s 2020sª ª Includes wildfires that occurred from January 2020 through July 2024. 48 Water Management in California Is Complex California's Precipitation Is Highly Variable Statewide Precipitation in Inches Drought Periods 40 35 Annual 30 25 40-Year 20 Average 15 10 5 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 Most Precipitation Falls in ...But Most Water Use Northern California... Occurs in Southern and Central California... Water Use in Millions of Acre Feet Urban Agriculture North Central South 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 ...So an extensive system of Annual Precipitation canals has been developed to In Inches transport water across the state. High 171.5 Low 1.82 State, Federal, or Local Canal Map created by California Department of Water Resources using PRISM (prism.oregonstate.edu). 49 Transportation Funding Comes From Many Sources 2022-23 Diesel Excise Tax Gasoline Excise Tax Total: $44 Billion General Fund and Other Sales Taxes Road Improvement Fee Federal Weight Fees Diesel Excise Tax Cap-and-Trade Auction Revenues Local General Fund State Diesel Sales Tax Other Transportation Improvement Fee Gasoline Excise Tax General Funds Transit Fares Limited-Term Federal and State Augmentations Increased Overall Transportation Funding Levels in Recent Years (In Billions) $50 45 40 35 Federal 30 25 State 20 15 10 Local 5 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 Note: Includes federal funding that flows to entities in California through formula allocations. Excludes one-time federal grants awarded on a competitive basis. 50 Commuting Patterns Shifted During and After Pandemicª -7% Drivingb Change 132% Work From Home Change 2019 -40% Public Transit 2021 Change 2022 2023 Active -6% Transportation Change 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90% Working from home has become far more popular while public transit use remains well below pre-pandemic levels. a Based on data from the American Community Survey. 2020 data is omitted due to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on data collection and quality. b Driving includes cars, trucks, vans, motorcycles, and taxis. Total Miles Driven and Traffic Delays Both Dipped During Pandemic but Now Are Increasing Miles Vehicle Hours (Billions) (Millions) 370 180 160 350 140 Vehicle Miles Traveled 330 120 Congestionc 100 310 80 290 60 40 270 20 250 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 When stay-at-home orders went into effect, the number of miles people drove and the amount of hours they spent in traffic both dropped. Both are now rising but remain lower than they were in the years before the pandemic. c Congestion is measured as vehicle hours of delay on freeways when speeds are below 35 miles per hour. 51 O T H E R 52 Crime Rates Well Below Historical Highs Despite Some Recent Increases Crimes per 100,000 Population 8,000 1,200 7,000 Violent 1,000 6,000 800 5,000 Property 4,000 600 3,000 400 2,000 200 1,000 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2022 Property Violent Peak Rate 2,297.8 (1980) Peak Rate 14.4 (1980) 4.4 (2014) 5.7 (2022) 526.1 (2014) 367.5 (2022) Homicide Burglary Peak Rate 1,037.1 (1989) Peak Rate 57.7 (1980) 394.3 (2014) 465.9 (2022) Rapeª 36.8 (2022) 24.4 (2014) Motor Vehicle Theft Peak Rate 3,845.3 (1980) Peak Rate 418.1 (1992) 1,538.6 (2014) 1,480.3 (2022) 126.4 (2014) 122.1 (2022) Larceny-Theft Robbery Peak Rate 632.5 (1992) 330.0 (2022) 238.1 (2014) Aggravated Assault ª The definition of rape was expanded in 2014. A comparable 1980 rate is not available but would be higher than displayed. 53 State and County Correctional Populations Have Declined State Populations 180,000 Prison Parole 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Temporary changes due to Certain felony Proposition 47 Proposition 57 COVID-19, including expanded populations converts certain expands prison pre-trial release from jails, stoppage “realigned” from drug and theft credits and of in-take from jail to prison, and the state to the felonies to parole eligibility. accelerated prison releases. counties. misdemeanors. Maximum probation and parole terms are reduced. 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 Felony and Misdemeanor Probation Post Release Community Supervision Mandatory Supervision Jail County Populations 54 California Supports a Wide Range of State and Local Infrastructure Key State Key Local Infrastructure Infrastructure 339,000 lane miles of local roads 52,000 lane miles Transportation of highways About 460 miles of urban mass transit 23 California State About 10,000 K-12 schools University campuses Education 10 University of California 115 community college campuses campuses 38 dams and About 1,500 dams and water storage facilities reservoirs About 1,600 miles About 18,000 miles of of levees Resources levees 281 state parks and related sites About 15,000 local parks 31 adult correctional facilities 36 conservation camps 121 jails Criminal 5 state mental Justice More than 85 juvenile justice health hospitals facilities 430 court facilities 86 armories 11 public seaports 8 veteran homes Other 55 Estimated $4.5 Billion in State IT Projects Scheduled to Finish in Next Four Years All Funds (In Millions) As of August 2024, there were 41 state IT projects approved by, and under the oversight of, the California Department of Technology (CDT). Projects representing nearly three-quarters of the total cost of the state’s IT portfolio (an estimated $3.2 billion) are expected to finish in 2026. State entities have proposed an additional 77 new IT projects pending approval by CDT, some of which have an estimated cost of several hundreds of millions of dollars. SCP WMVARS Insurance and Highway Patrol’s Leave Programs’ Body-Worn and Customer Portal In-Car Camera Systems 30% 40% $222 5% DxP $163 Department of 4% Finish Finish Motor Vehicles’ 2027 2024 Systems Finish Modernization 2025 $415 9% $766 17% Finish EDR2 2026 $1,711 State Tax Systems Modernization 38% CWS-CARES Child Welfare Information System IT = information technology; SCP = Shared Customer Portal; CWS-CARES = Child Welfare Services - California Automated Response and Engagement System; EDR2 = Enterprise Data to Revenue 2; DxP = Digital Experience Platform; and WMVARS = Wireless Mobile Video/Audio Recording System. 56 Last Mile Programs Aim to Provide Broadband Connectionª Each last-mile project grant program intends to connect locations to broadband internet service. However, differences in definitions, goals, and other criteria result in different numbers of unserved by program. The figures below provide the estimated number of locations without broadband internet service as defined by each last-mile project grant program. Broadband Equity, Access, and Deployment Program Underserved More Than 25/3 Mbps, Less Than/Equal to 100/20 Mbps Unserved 154,591 461,481 Less Than/Equal to 25/3 Mbps 306,890 California Advanced Services Fund Broadband Infrastructure Account Unserved More Than 10/1 Mbps, Less Than/Equal to 25/3 Mbps 107,564 553,262 Priority Unserved Less Than/Equal to 10/1 Mbps 445,698 Federal Funding Account 996,392 Unserved Less Than/Equal to 25/3 Mbps ª Definitions of "priority unserved," "underserved," and "unserved" vary between programs based on criteria in addition to speed, including latency and technology used. Higher Megabits per second (Mbps) speeds represent faster internet service. LAO Publications This report was an officewide effort, prepared by many analysts and designed by Vu Chu. The Legislative Analyst’s Office (LAO) is a nonpartisan office that provides fiscal and policy information and advice to the Legislature. To request publications call (916) 445-4656. This report and others, as well as an e-mail subscription service, are available on the LAO’s website at www.lao.ca.gov. The LAO is located at 925 L Street, Suite 1000, Sacramento, CA 95814.